The Stragy Of Location And Placement In EC Supply Chain Network Based On Demand Forecasting

In the Internet Age, e-commerce is developing quickly. More and more companies sell products to consumers through the e-commerce, such as JD, Amazon, Tmall, which have a variety of products, and replenish stock, and shipments frequently, so the supply chain network consisting of upstream suppliers and downstream customers is more and more complicated. How to manage inventory and meet customer demand has become the bottleneck of e-commerce supply network. The warehouse of supply chain network, does not only meet the demand of local customers, but also supports other region through transfer to reduce the inventory level of the supply network, and improves customer satisfaction.It studies the consumable products of e-commerce supply network by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of different market demand forecast method, with different scientific demand forecasting methods for different scenes. It proposes the inventory strategy of e-commerce, based on the region out of stock, with the random demand and inventory transshipment of cooperation, through the enterprise balanced and inventory optimization theory.First, it chooses the suitable forecasting models with different market demand characteristics by analyzing market demand from a different perspective, in view of the macro, meso and micro level. The result shows that the integrated prediction model with inbound, glances view, inventory outbound, in the same times adjust the change garments according to the day, holidays is better when it forecasts macro meso demand, the same as BP neural network in forecasting micro demand which has little fluctuation.Secondly, according the city supported by the e-commerce supply network, through the K-means clustering and multiple attribute decision making theory, It can choose the fulfillment center location to meet customer demand instantly, and reduce inventory costs at most. Using R tools, it compares with company A's actual situation to analyze the advantage of the proposed scheme.Thirdly, according to the market demand forecast, based on the storage cost and risk of shortage, it gets the optimal basic warehouse inventory strategy, maximizing profits, etc., and through the R language simulation to investigate the influence of inventory strategy on inventory holding costs and sales. In the same time, transfer can coordinate the supply network inventory and improve profits.The empirical analysis of company A shows that the new inventory location strategies not only meet the customer service, but also reduce enterprise cost, and shorten delivery time. It can realize the inventory balance, reduce inventory costs and improve customer satisfaction through inventory transfer.