The Sensitivity Of An Electric Company To Strategic Mineral Raw Materials: Establishment Of A Methodology

The business model of any energy company is based on industrial installations of energy production(nuclear, thermal, hydraulic, photovoltaic, wind), of storage/ transportation and on energy usage(mobility, lighting, buildings, etc.). Minerals resources are indispensable for the maintaining and development of these infrastructures, but these resources are depleting. Energy companies are facing this issue and their sustainability could be at risk in case of a disruption in the supply of minerals raw materials. The anticipation of future bottleneck to secure critical minerals appears indispensable.The aim of this study is to develop a common methodology for all energy companies to analyze their sensitivity to the scarcity of minerals raw materials and to apply it to EDF, a French electric utility company. The methodology developed proposes both a short term and a long term analysis.Regarding the short term, the scarcity risk can be classified into two categories, with different sub-risks and indicators to measure it: the global market risk(independent of the company) and the vulnerability of the company to supply restrictions. Eleven main risks have been identified and can be analyzed for each mineral through a criticality matrix.On the long term, mineral demand scenarios to 2040 satisfying the projections scenario of the entity analyzed have to be realized. A case study on photovoltaic industry reflects the lack of relevant data regarding energy projections, material intensity and technological mix to realize credible scenarios. Consequently, critical elements on PV sectors depend on the hypotheses used. Also, it is not possible to define a list of critical materials as they are evolving all the time: the methodology should therefore be revised every two years.