A Study On Energy Conservation And Carbon Dioxide Emissions Of China’s Building Materials Industry In Urbanization Stage

With the accelerated process of urbanization, China has become the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon dioxide discharger. Due to the large population base and the relatively high level of energy consumption of urban residents, China’s energy demand will continue to grow in the near future. When comparing with the developed countries, we find that China’s energy demand and carbon dioxide emission are both restricted by the current development stage. More rapidly the economy grows, which must be supported by sufficient and cheap energy, the lower energy utilization efficiency is. The coal-dominated energy structure in the urbanization process will pose a great threat to the sustainable development of China when considering the issues such as energy scarcity, environment pollution and climate change.Industry is the dominant contributor to energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in China. The urbanization process will undoubtedly promote infrastructure construction, which will stimulate demand for cement, ceramics, glasses and some other building materials. As one of the six largest energy-consuming industries in China, building materials induatry contribute 9% of the total energy consumption and 6% of total electricity consumption in China. It is also the pillar industry of China since its added value makes up about 1% of GDP each year. The energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in building materials industry have the stage characteristics. Its energy conservation and emission reduction potential is of great significance to the achievement of e total energy consumption controlling and transformation of low-carbon development.In the context of urbanization stage, we explore the stage characteristics of energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions, analyze the relationship between economic growth, energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions, and forecast the peaks and inflection points of energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions in China’s urbanization stage using international comparative approach. Furthermore, this paper takes the building materials industry as a specific study object to answer the following main questions:what are the main factors promoting the energy demand of the building materials industry during urbanization stage? How much energy will be demanded and saved in the building materials industry under different economic growth secnarios? How much electricity will be demanded and saved in building materials industry under different simulated scenarios? Compared with Japan’s building materials industry that has the highest energy efficiency, how much is potential of power intensity decrease in China’s building materials industry? What are the main factors affecting the carbon dioxide emissions in building materials industry and how much is the potential of emission reduction in this industry?The main conclusions are as follows:First, China’s energy demand has stage characteristics. In the stage of urbanization, the demand for energy grows rapidly and rigidly. The relationship between energy demand and economic development can be reflected in an inverted U shape curve.Second, in the stage of urbanization, the carbon dioxide emissions grow rigidly. The economy growth, urbanization, energy intensity and cement demand are the main factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions in China. Energy reservation is the main method of emissions reduction.Third, the energy demand in building materials industry is mainly affected by economic growth. The rise of energy prices, improvement of science and technology and increase of productivity per capita are beneficial to the decrease of energy demand in building materials industry.Fourth, economic development is the key driver of electricity consumption growth in building materials industry, while the industrial added value per capita, R&D Intensity of the industry and electricity price are the main factors that can reduce the power consumption in this industry.Fifth, technical process, labor productivity, electricity price and industry concentration are in favor of the decrease of power intensity in building materials industry. To 2020, the power intensity in China’s building materials industry will decrease dramatically, and can be as low as the current level of that in Japan. More active energy reservation policy will contribute to the decrease of power intensity in industry and thus achieving greater power saving potential.Sixth, industrial activity effect is the main factor promoting the increase of carbon dioxide emission in building materials industry, while energy intensity has the opposite effect. The substitution of fuel is conductive to decrease carbon dioxide emission. Energy conservation is a key strategic choice to decrease energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions in building materials industry.