The Causes And Effects Of The Ukrainian Crisis

The crisis breaking out in November 2013 in Ukraine has been the most severe political crisis of the country since its independence. The causes of crisis are quite complicated, not only including the chaotic historical entanglements, but also involving the disordered realistic struggles. As the interests of many great powers are affected, and the crisis fails to be quelled for long term, not only the traditional political and economic order of the various countries and the Europe have been influenced, but also the formation and continuance of the crisis has had profound significance to the world pattern and the adjustment of relationship between the world powers.On Nov. 21, 2013, the Ukrainian government announced not to sign the association agreement with the Europe, as a result, the domestic pro-Western people organized a demonstration, and the crisis broke out immediately. With the continuous spreading of the demonstration situation in Kiev, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea announced its independence through referendum and joined the Russian Federation. The domestic political crisis in Ukraine evolved officially into the global crisis with direct confrontation between Russia and the west. Affected by the independence of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the separatism in the east of Ukraine became more and more violent. Donetsk and Luhansk announced their independence respectively and had continuous firefight with the government. On Dec. 12, 2015, with the escalation of the situation in the east of Ukraine, the leaders of the four countries including Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia signed The Minsk Agreement, which brought temporal peace to Ukraine. However, there appeared continuous conflicts between both parties after signing the agreement. On April 17, the USA-Ukraine joint military drill with code- name of "Fearless Guardian-2015 " was held in Lviv, and as a result, the conflicts among various parties resurged again.At the beginning of 2016, the conflicts have been continuously broken out between the government army and the eastern civil armed army of Ukraine. According to the latest data published by the high commissioner office of human rights of the United Nations, up to March 1, 2016, there have been 9187 persons died and 21085 persons injured in Ukraine during these two years of conflicts, the casualties include soldiers and civilians.Ukraine crisis is affected by both domestic and foreign factors. On the aspect of domestic factors, the failure of economic system transition and political institution transformation causes the continuously depressed economy, the turbulent political scene and the increasingly intensified social contradictions of Ukraine. And the special development process of governing by dividing into the East and the West of Ukraine in the history creates the barriers between the Ukraine nationality and Russ nationality at domestic, the people of the western and eastern parts have different opinions on the strategic choice of being “eastward” or “westward”. On the aspect of international factors, the breakout of the crisis is inseparable with the long-term contentions of Russia, the United States and Europe Union for Ukraine.Ukraine has profound historical origin with Russia, and possesses important geopolitics meaning for Russia, as the important pivot for Putin to carry out the progress of Eurasian Integration Plan, Ukraine makes Russia feel difficult to give up. Therefore, while facing that The United States and Europe give tit for tat, Russia resolutely chose the tough, firm and resolute solutions. For the United States, Ukraine is a crucial chess piece on controlling the chess board of Europe and Asia. The benefits of the United States lie in squeezing the strategic space of Russia, dividing the Commonwealth of the Independent States and dealing with the centrifugal autonomy tendency of Europe at such area. For Europe Union, Ukraine is the important target country for its expansion to the east, the failure of Association Agreement signed between European Union and Ukraine government in 2013 finally became the blasting fuse for breaking out Ukraine crisis.Ukraine crisis generates the far-reaching influence on the domestic politics of Ukraine, the geopolitical layout of Central and Eastern Europe and the relationship between major countries. Specifically speaking, the most heavily affected is the country directly involved, Ukraine; strategically speaking, this country has inclined towards the Western to the greatest extent, and the leaders of such country even appeal to the international community to “band together and resist the invasion of Russia.” After the crisis happened, Russia's attitude toward the Western is increasingly getting tough, and Russia also timely adjusts foreign strategy; the advantages of The United States rises up in geopolitical game with Russia; European Union enlarges the influence in Ukraine further; the strategical radiation of North Atlantic Treaty Organization gets effectively reinforced; and for China, the generation and continuity of crisis have both challenges and opportunities. In short, the influence generated by Ukraine crisis will be profound and lasting.At present, Ukraine crisis has not been terminated yet, the divergence among different factions has not vanished either, local armed conflicts also exist and the prospect of the adjustment of geopolitical layout is far from clear. However, no matter how the situation will be developed, the future of the situation in Ukraine mainly depends on the result of the contest between Russia and the Western, depends on the objectives, capability and means of both parties, as well we the individuality and style of leaders. Ukraine shall try best to avoid becoming the advance position of the wrestling between The United States and Russia, no matter being pro-Russia or pro-western, the loser will be Ukraine. Therefore, the destiny of Ukraine is not entirely decided by itself, but must be grasped in its own hand.