Research On Fresh Agricultural Products Supply Chain Demand Risk Management In China

"The Twelfth Five-Year Plan for economic and social development" clearly pointed out that: at the same time of the in-depth development of industrialization and urbanization,promoting agricultural modernization is a major mission of "Twelfth Five-year Plan".Agriculture is a fundamental of the founding of our country,and agricultural development has been critical to economic development and the construction of the people's livelihood.In recent years,the emergence of a problem has been plagued the country's government departments and peasants.This problem is the difficulty of selling agricultural products.Sell ing difficulty embodied in low price or dull of sale,especially fresh agricultural products.Potatoes in Inner Mongolia,cabbage in Shandong,onion in Hebei,turnip in Liaoning,were appeared selling difficult situation,citrus around regions also appeared unsalable phenomenon.This brought irreversible loss to producer,hit the enthusiasm of the producers.Other sales,including retailers,were also caused a certain loss.So the uncertainty of demand,or we call this demand risk,is paid far more attention by the parties in recent years.Nowadays,the supply chain management,risk management,and system dynamics theory prevails and achieve remarkable success.If these theories and methods can be well applied to the demand risk of fresh agricultural products,it will be able to reduce losses greatly.Under the background,this article based on the principle of system dynamics,by means of system dynamics method,made the demand risk of fresh agricultural products supply chain as the research object,and the theory of risk management as the main line,studied to risk demand of fresh agricultural products supply chain systematically and comprehensively.The article is divided into six parts.First part is introduction..Second part is the literature review and theoretical basis.Third part is the fresh agricultural products supply chain demand risk identification.The fourth part is the fresh agricultural products supply chain demand risk assessment and system simulation analysis.The fifth part is the fresh agricultural products supply chain demand risk management.The last part is summary.