Research On The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Changes On China's Import And Export Trade

In the year of 2015, the RMB has been included into the SDR currency basket, marking a significant key step toward the internationalization of the RMB. In the economic activities of the world, the RMB exchange rate is an important bridge and a linking tool between China and other countries,the relation between the internationalization of the RMB and China’s import and export trade is mutual promotion. With the advance of the internationalization of the RMB, the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate is increasing, so now the research on the influence of RMB volatility imposed on China’s import and export trade is very meaningful.China’s import and export trade has developed rapidly in the past, many countries have a large trade deficit with China, including the United States, the United States repeatedly press China elevate the currency value of RMB.They thought the low currency value of RMB lead to China’s trade surplus, In the fact of the past, the value of the RMB has been in the procession of appreciation, China’s trade surplus has still been in a trend of growing up. The import and export trade between China and the United States is very typical, so this research is based on the analysis of Sino-US trade data.The background of this paper is the volatility of the RMB’s exchange rate has been increasing.This paper take the relationship between the Real Exchange Rate and China’s international trade as the starting point, analyzing the impact of RMB exchange rate on China’s import and export trade. This paper is divided into five parts, the first part is an general introduction including the background of the research, the significance of the content, the methods of research, the innovation and weakness of this paper. The first part also includes the review of the literature relevant about the influence that the volatility of the exchange rate imposed on the international trade. The second part introduces the theories about the influence imposed by the volatility of the exchange rate on the international trade, including the theory of elasticity and absorption analysis theory. The third part analyzes the historical process of the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime and the deficits of the current exchange rate system, and the influence imposed on China’s macroeconomic and microeconomic by the current exchange rate regime. The third part include the qualitative and empirical analysis of the influence of the volatility of RMB exchange on China’s international trade, because the United States is the country which exerted most pressure on the RMB exchange rate, the United States and China are the most important trading partner of each other, so this article analysis the influence of the volatility on the RMB exchange rate based on the date of the international trade between China and US. The part of empirical analysis uses the ADF unit root test method to test the stationary of the time series. Part five puts forward relevant proposals according to the empirical analysis.The innovation of this article lies in the particular way it used.It identify the variables relevant import and export trade through the general theoretical analysis and the analysis of the import and export trade, the structure of this article is complete. Because the study of the RMB exchange rate issue is developing with the times, so the relevant content of the paper still requires constant improvement.