| China's economy has entered a state of new normal on account of the rise in the cost of production, the change of the mode of technical progress, the decline of the rate of return on investment, the unsustainability of the export-oriented growth, and economic development's transformation from the old way to a new cyclic low-carbon mode forced with energy and environmental constraints. Understanding, adapting to and leading the "new normal" is China's principle line of economic and social development at present and in the coming period.So what impact would be brought from technical progress as the main driven force in the state of new normal to economic development? So far, the researches on this topic mainly focus on how technical progress declined energy consumption and pollutant emission by raising the energetic efficiency. In this regard, the author thought that the technical progress in these studies was in narrow sense, but in the process of economic development, the technical progress in broad sense should be combined with the mechanism of market and the laws of economics, including the improvement of technology, technical efficiency, factors'quality in production, efficiency of resource allocation, benefits of production structure and scale economy, etc. Its influence on energy consumption is related to capital input, labor input, economic increment, energy demand elasticity and many other factors, which may has a more complicated effect on energy consumption.Therefore, the writer combined the basic knowledge in major and the visiting experiences in Tsinghua University sponsored by SNNU's special funds for independent research projects together, with the participation in two significant projects named "The preliminary study of the thirteenth'five-year plan'for Beijing's energy using " and "the identification of the source of regional air contamination and it's technological application" which was sponsored by the commission of Beijing's development&reform and the National Sci-tech Support Plan, respectively. The paper chose "the effect of technical progress on energy consumption" as the topic and took Beijing as an example.The key point of this paper is studying the effect of the generalized technical progress on energy consumption based on the research of the technical progress in narrow sense which saves energy, in industrial level, and making a comprehensive detailed evaluation and a deepgoing analysis, according to the ?Statistical yearbook of Beijing in 2014? released by statistical bureau, in order to provide theoretical basis and reference for the economic development, energy conservation and emission reduction in Beijing and even the whole nation.Firstly, the paper tried to present the quantitative characteristics of New normal in line with its connotation and main characteristics. Secondly, the paper measured the energy saving, energy rebound consumption and energy rebound effect caused by technical progress using the method of index decomposition and Solow residues, to make a systemic evaluation of the effect of technical progress on energy consumption, which was on the basis of identifying the type of the technical innovation in Beijing from 1999 to 2013. And the further analysis was made about establishing the interactive analytical framework about "economic institution-technical progress-rebound effect" to explain the approaches of the generalized technical progress to influence rebound energy consumption.The results showed:(1) Beijing had stepped from the "latency" of the new normal into the state of new normal gradually from 1996 to 2013, reviewing the data from 1997 to 2013.(2) The paper measured the energy saving, the energy consumption and the comprehensive energy rebound effect caused by technical progress, to provides the basis for the adjustment of industrial structure in Beijing from the perspective of market-oriented resource allocation, and to point out the direction of technical and energy resource allocation. Moreover, the energy saving caused by technical progress had been increased rapidly since 2000, whose majority effect was reflected in the second and third industries, and the volume of energy saving were 6904.0,17757.1 and 16855.7 thousand tons of standard coal during the period of the ninth, the tenth and the eleventh "five-year plan", respectively; the energy rebound consumption was mainly reflected in the second industry, swinging from 1996 to 2013, and the volume of rebound energy consumption were 17476.8,12626.9 and 15692.4 thousand tons of standard coal during the period of the three "five-year plan"; the energy rebound effect was cyclically fluctuated in this period with its smaller volume and decrescendo fluctuation, which were 2.531,0.771 and 0.931 in the period of the three "five-year plan", and it was mainly reflected in the third industry.(3) The paper illuminated how technical progress influenced energy consumption, to rais some corresponding strategies and suggestions about how to evaluate the result and to enact the measures of energy saving from technical progress, and to provide scientific basis for making overall arrangement for energy saving in different industries The effect of technical progress on energy consumption was related to the Macro-economic development pattern and the characteristic of technical progress. To be specific, the market-oriented developing direction of economic mechanism and the growing marketization extent of factor price in production has imposed companies to conduct technical progress and industrial upgrading, and this advanced the efficiency of resources allocation, which means it promoted the formation of "valid technical progress" and decreased the invalid energy consumption.Eventually, the author thought that to reduce energy consumption in the context of new normal, we could not only rely on technical progress simply, but also take the market mechanism, innovation mechanism and market oriented policies into consideration, give full play to the core role of the market allocation of energy, and improve the market oriented mechanism of energy allocation, which is of great meaning in sustainable development in Beijing and even the whole country. |
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