China's Energy Rebound Effect By Sector Based On Panel Data

Energy consumption has been one of the key factors to keep our national economy with sustainable and rapid development since the reform and openness to the outside world, especially since China's accession to the WTO. However, our proven reserves per capita lefts a large gap compared to the world average level, and the increasingly serious contradiction between energy supply and demand proposes a great challenge to china's energy strategy in the new millennium. So, do increases in energy efficiency via technological improvement effectively reduce energy consumption?Since the 1990s, academic controversy on―Jevons paradox‖has aroused unprecedented concerns from scholars and researchers abroad in the field of energy economy, environmental protection, etc. However, empirical analysis on china's energy rebound effect by sectors is insufficient. Based upon the actual energy pressure, we firstly makes literature reviews, and then analyzes related theories on energy rebound effect including Neoclassical growth theory and system dynamics, and then we constructs casual loop diagram based on the mechanism of energy rebound effect, based on which, we further constructs rebound effect model, finally we makes empirical analysis on China's five industries during the period of 1994-2007, and corresponding measures are also proposed so as to better save energy.Conclusions are as follows through empirical research. First, technical progress plays a positive role in the five industries, that is, technical advance improves the development of the five industries. And influence on agriculture and construction is larger than other three industries from 1994 to 2000. And technical progress takes much more impact upon transportation, storage & postal services from 2001 to 2007. Second, energy intensity change shows that there is a steady trend on the five categories of trades, and the fluctuation is within some reasonable range. Third, the promotion of the energy efficiency due to sustainable R&D investment exerts different kinds of influence on energy consumption of five industries, and energy saving can be achieved in this industries. Finally, the estimation shows that the energy efficiency rebound effect of the five categories of industries ranges from 20% to 180% during the period of 1995 to 2007. And―backfire effect‖exists among the five industries to some extent.