The Economic Effects Of EU-Japan FTA And The Impact Analysis To China

Economic globalization and regional economic integration are the two trends of the current world economic development.Under the impact of the global economic crisis,Every country hopes to set up free trade area in the spring tide of regional economy,through free trade area to reduce tariff and non-tariff trade barriers,relax market access conditions.To achieve trade protection,promote economic growth,the expansion of trade volume,the relaxation of investment conditions,to maximize the sharing of the benefits of economic globalization.EU-Japan FTA negotiations officially launched from 2013,so far has gone through 16 rounds of negotiations.Once the agreement being successfully signed,it will greatly enhance the European Union and Japan's trade partnership,and produce positive significance in preventing and opposing trade protectionism.In addition,China the European Union and Japan has close trade relations,the EU and Japan,respectively,is China's largest and the fifth largest trading partners,has a huge volume of trade.Therefore,the EU-Japan FTA has a significant impact on China's import and export trade and output.Although in recent years tariffs does not occupy the main position in the FTA negotiation,with the increasingly large intermediate product share in Global trade,therefore,it is necessary to stimulate the tariff reduction in the economic effect of FTA analysis.In addition,technical barriers to trade is an important part of the non-tariff barriers,at the same time is the core issue in the construction of FTA negotiations,technical trade barriers has a wide variety of diverse,then what kind of economic effect will produce to cut the technical trade barriers to trade countries(regions)and the district outside the country?In this paper,with the use of the global trade analysis model and the latest database(GTAP9.0),according to the requirement of the research,based on the EU and Japan's trading partners and the classification of products division in Chinese Ministry of commerce national trade report,and the global has been integrated for 12 countries(regions),the industrial sector is divided into 15 departments.In the research method,based on the GTAP9.0 database,this paper uses the dynamic recursive method.According to the French data research center and the United Nations Population Division's data,GDP,population,labor(skilled labor,unskilled labor),capital stock and others being updated,forming a benchmark case.on this basis,through the simulation of three kinds of circumstances to cut tariffs and technical barriers to trade,in order to highlight the economic effects of the EU-Japan FTA with the cutting of technical barriers to trade.The article is divided into six parts.In the first part,the introduction,the paper first describes the research background and significance of the study.The second part is about domestic and foreign research,research methods and the main content of the paper.and finally is about the innovation and deficiencies of this paper.The second part is about the theoretical analysis about the economic effect of free trade zone and empirical model.Theoretical analysis mainly including the customs union theory,free trade area theory and other trade theory.The empirical model is about the global trade analysis model(GTAP model).The third part introduces the negotiations in EU-Japan FTA and present trade situations among China,Japan and EU.and present trade situation involving China,EU and Japan's current trade patterns,China and the EU,China and Japan bilateral trade situation analysis.The fourth part is the core part of the article,in the dynamic recursion of GTAP9.0 database,forming datum database.then policy situations were simulated,and the results were integrated and analysis,including the economic effects of the analysis in the EU-Japan FTA.The fifth part of the core content is the economic effects of the free trade zone for china's major economic indicators,trade and industry.The first is the impact on China's welfare,GDP,trade size and terms of trade and other economic indicators.Followed by China on the EU,Japan's trade.Finally,the impact on the output of China's sector.The sixth part is based on the analysis of the fourth and fifth parts.From the government,enterprises and industry from three angles put forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions.On the basis of the analysis about tariff barriers and technical barriers to trade status in European Union and Japan,through the simulation of a benchmark case and three policy situations,the analysis highlights the economic effects of reduction of technical barriers to trade in the EU-Japan FTA.The simulation results show that zero tariff measures of EU-Japan FTA has positive effects in the welfare,terms of trade and trade scale of Japan and the European Union,the positive effects expand exponentially as technical barriers to trade cuts.To a greater extent to promote the economic growth of the European Union and Japan.But for China,whether it is to cut tariffs or technical barriers to trade,the macro economy and trade have suffered from varying degrees of loss,and the reduction of technical barriers to trade has led to a doubling of China's losses.In addition,the EU-Japan FTA has a dual impact on the output of different industries in China.China should take appropriate preventive measures to deal with it.The innovation of this paper lies,first of all,in the timeliness of the topic,Research perspective is more innovative,Most of the existing literature is written from the perspective of tariffs.Followed by research methods,on the use of GTAP9.0 database,based on the prediction of the CEPII database and the United Nations Population Division.the model carry on dynamic recursion,the benchmark data will be recursive to 2020.On this basis,respectively shock tariff(TMS)and technical barriers to trade(AMS),policy simulation cutting tariffs and reduce technical barriers to trade the formal implementation of the EU-Japan FTA economic effect of qualitative,quantitative and comparative analysis.