Study On Industry-city Integration Evaluation Of Development Zone Base On System Dynamics

The healthy development of the economy and society not only includes the industrial development,but also includes the construction of the city function.At present,most of the development zones in urban services progress is significantly lower than the achievements of industrial development,causing problems of industry-city separation,such as production efficiency loss,low economic efficiency,high production costs,lack of infrastructure facilities,the lack of public services and so on,industry-city integration development idea is coming.Industry-city integration of development zone is a sustainable development model,and it is an effective way of development zone to achieve the transformation and upgrading.The author thinks,industry-city integration of development zone is that making industrialization and urbanization to rely on each other,to promote coordination,synchronization,and integration between the development of industry and city service,to achieve industry and city integration in space,structure,function,in the process of development zone construction.Taking HZETDZ as an example,the paper researches on the development of industry-city integration from two aspects of theoretical and empirical research.In terms of theoretical analysis,the paper analyses economic dynamic mechanism of industry-city integration and industry-city relation interaction of development zone,using related theories and methods of system dynamics to establish s-d model of industry-city integration for development zone.In the empirical analysis,using s-d model simulate and analyze it's development data of 2005-2014,including development index of industry-city integration and industry,city,ecology,also including sensitivity analysis of influencing factors.Theoretical study shows that in the interaction of industrialization promotes urbanization and urbanization support industrialization,economic dynamic mechanism of industry-city integration includes internal power,external thrust and reform power.In the start,growth and maturity of development zone,there is a synergistic evolutionary relationship between industrial development and urban functions,and exists multiple interactive relationship between elements of system.Empirical research shows that HZETDZ's development index of industry-city integration is constantly improving,also the same as the development index of industry,city and ecology.Sensitivity analysis shows that the larger impacts on industry-city integration development index factors,including industrial investment,bank loan balance,sci-tech innovation level,infrastructure investment,local fiscal expenditure amount,total sales of goods,the decrease rate of million yuan industrial added value energy consumption.Through the theoretical and empirical research on the industry-city integration of development zone,this paper gives three policy recommendations.(1)Industry development investment mainly to invest advanced manufacturing and modern service industry,to invest technology research and application.(2)Urban function construction mainly to increase infrastructure investment and improve public service capacity.(3)Construction of the ecological environment mainly to build the green industry chain and to strike ecological development zone.