Research On Mineral Resources Supply And Demand Situation And Capacity Cooperation In Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia region is located in the "crossroads" of the two continents and two oceans,and is one of the most important sea lanes.It borders on the south of China,is adjacent to the South China Sea,and guards the important channel of Malacca strait.With the "The Belt and Road" initiative put forward,Southeast Asia becomes an important part of "the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road".Along with the push to "China-Indochina economic corridor" and "The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar(BCIM)Economic Corridor ",its strategic significance increasingly important.Southeast Asia has a population of 600 million,and its average economic growth rate will remain 5%-6%over the next 10 years.Economic development has huge potential,and mineral resources demand will rise sharply.Meanwhile,Southeast Asia region is rich in mineral resources,mining industry and related industry is of great importance in its economy and its will to develop mining and smelting processing and manufacturing industries is strongly.So Southeast Asia region has become an ideal area to realize "the Belt and Road" capacity cooperation idea and achieve win-win results for mining cooperation.Based on the analysis of primary energy,crude steel,copper,aluminum and other major mineral resources consumption history,we utilize capita mineral resources consumption and capita GDP S-shaped rules and resources-industry "flying geese" evoling pattern to forcast.Think that by 2030,the demand of primary energy,crude steel,copper and aluminum in Southeast Asia are expected to double,respectively reached 1.2 billion tons of oil equivalent,170 million tons,1.9 million tons and 2.8 million tons.Through the analysis of primary energy consumption structure evolution,combined with the end-use industry development trends,we forecast the demand of oil,gas and coal.Results show that by 2030,oil,gas and coal demand will reach 420 million tons,350 billion cubic metre and 650 million tons respectively.The future energy supply will be tighter in Southeast Asia.For crude steel,copper and aluminum,their production capacity is expanded,but they still need to rely on imports for a long time to come.The oil gap will reach 330 million tons,and there will be a gap of 107 cubic meters for natural gas and about 87 million tons for coal by 2030.Meanwhile Crude steel,copper,aluminum will appear a gap of 116 million tons,1.15 million tons and 1.62 million tons,respectively.Southeast Asia region has abundant resources,especially has certain advantages in oil,natural gas,bauxite,copper,gold,nickel,potassium,tungsten,tin,coal and so on.The overall degree of geological work and resources development degree is low and it will have large resource potential in the future.We establish a mining investment environment evaluation system,and use the method of characteristic value to evaluate the mining investment environment for Southeast Asian countries.Think that Indonesia and Laos are the preferred countries in mining capacity cooperation between China and Southeast Asia.On comprehensive basis of the above analysis,we propose the proposal of the capacity cooperation between China and Southeast Asian countries.The key area of energy cooperation is Indonesia,including oil and gas industry chain cooperation,coal and coal-based power cooperation,as well as new energy cooperation.Solid mineral cooperation is given priority to copper,gold,nickel,bauxite and potassium,mainly in Indonesia and Laos.Infrastructure construction is given priority to promote the construction of the Trans-Asian Railway.Relatively developed areas in Indonesia,Malaysia and Vietnam should be considered first in the industrial park cooperation.At the same time,Smelting processing,infrastructure and industrial park construction can be set as comprehensive industry cluster cooperation zones.