Spatial Dynamics And Evolution Trend Of Urban Logistics Facilities In Beijing

Urban logistics facilities are an important part of urban logistics development and are also an important prerequisite for urban distribution.After decades of construction and development,especially since the beginning of the logistics development planning of Beijing,which started to pay attention to planning logistics facilities layout,the"Three-ring,Five-belt,Multi-center" spatial layout of urban logistics has basically been fonned currently in Beijing.However,with the proposal of integrated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Beijing is now redefining its own position,providing guidance for population migration and optimizing structure for capital's core function.At the same time,Hebei and Tianjin are also planning to build logistics cities and regions.The changes of internal environment and policies and the attraction of external areas will both challenge the current logistics facility distribution in Beijing.Therefore,this paper hopes to research on the possibility of migration and the main direction of the relocation of urban logistic facility caused by the policy guidance and the environment change.To achieve the research purposes,this paper analyzes the spatial evolvement process of logistics facilities in Beijing and the factors influencing the evolution and then establishes the model of logistics facility relocation.First of all,through the research and analysis of statistical data,this paper collects the construction details of logistics facilities in various periods in Beijing,and analyzes the spatial evolution of logistics facilities.By using statistical analysis method and geostatistics,we analyze the average center,standard deviation ellipse and kernel density of the spatial distribution of logistics facilities in each evolution stage and then discuss the evolution characteristics of each stage.The factors that influence the evolution of logistics facilities are analyzed by the combination of changes of demand distribution and land price,policy guidance and transportation facilities layout.Secondly,a mixed integer programming model is established to analysis whether the urban logistics facilities will move out under the new developing enverionment.Finally,MATLAB and the GUROBI toolbox are used to make simulation test.According to the simulation results,possibility of urban logisitics facilities which will move out,the effective policy to guide relocation and the main direction of emigration can be analyzed.The results show that,in the past decades,the logistics facilities of Beijing have shown a tendency of sprawl and under the changes of demand composition and land price.Urban logistics facilities are agglomeration under the city logistics planning and policies.The integrated of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei policy and the change of development and policy environment will influence the location of urban logistics facilities in Beijing.Government will transfer the nonessential functions of Beijing such as logistics.This paper finds that the infrastructure subsidy policy is effective to guide logistics facilities moveing out,and carbon tax can promote the effects of infrastructure subsidy through the simulation.The limit line policy hinders the sprawl of urban logistics.While the spatial distribution of the relocation facilities is another purpose of the simulation.We find that Machikou in northwest Beijing region will be a new cluster region of urban logistics.Sanhe and Langfang in Hebei province which lies in the east of Beijing are the important region,some facilities will relocated in Zhuozhou lies in southwest of Beijing.