The Imported Capital Goods' Quality And Technical Spillover Effect Of Chinese Manufacturing Industry

With the deepening of economic globalization,under new international industry and trade pattern,sustained economic growth and improvement of international competitiveness of manufacturing industry must rely on technical progress.In the open economy environment,developing countries can effectively improve the level of domestic machinery and equipment,which will affect the domestic industrial structure,improve labor productivity and produce significant technical spillover effect.Related literatures have paid less attention to technical progress through quality improvement and technology spillover effect of capital goods.With the gradual expansion of the capital goods imports scale in recent years,studying imported capital goods' quality and effect on the technical progress of domestic manufacturing industry has important significance for trade structure optimizing and manufacturing technology upgrading in China.First of all,this paper reviews the classical theory and models about technology spillovers effect of import trade.Then this paper analyzes the function and influence factors of technology spillover effect of imported capital goods.In the empirical study,this paper chooses the United States,Germany and Japan which are the main sources of imported capital goods for China as the research object.This paper uses nested logit model and the trade data from 2000 to 2013 to calculate the product quality index of imported capital goods from the United States,Germany and Japan.On this basis,this paper uses panel data and fixed effect method to examine the technology spillover effect of imported capital goods and introduces the control variables like domestic R&D investment,industry profit margin,human capital and trade openness.The empirical result is that the overall quality of imported capital goods from the United States,Germany and Japan is high and it presents a growth trend.The quality index of imported capital goods from the United States is the highest and the distribution of high-quality capital goods in industry is different for the three countries.The United States has high quality capital goods in the electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry,manufacture of special purpose machinery and transportation equipment.Germany has high quality capital goods in manufacture of transportation equipment and manufacture of special purpose machinery.And Japan has high quality capital goods in manufacture of special purpose machinery and general purpose machinery.The quality of imported capital goods from the United States,Germany and Japan plays a significant role in promoting total factor productivity.Besides,imported capital goods from the United States has the strongest technology spillover effect,followed by Germany and imported capital goods from Japan has relatively lower technology spillover effect.R&D and industry profit margin has obvious effect on TFP,while human capital and trade openness don't have obvious effect.Finally,the paper summarizes the research results and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.For example,encouraging high quality capital goods import trade,implementing related policies of import trade,strengthening the ability to absorb technology spillover through increasing investment in R&D,improving the level of human capital,realizing in dependent innovation efficiency.