Research On The Synchronization Of Economic Cycle Among Beijing City,Tianjin City And Hebei Province

Synchronization of economic cycle is the comprehensive indicators of regional coordinated development,so the economic cycle synchronization is for a country's macroeconomic policy formulation of far-reaching significance.At the present,the domestic and foreign scholars research on regional economic cycle synchronization most are focused on the national level,namely the synchrony between country and country economic cycle,there are also some scholars in a certain country regional economic cycle synchronization which are studied,but most of the latter research is based on all areas of the country's point of view,and not against a particular area.Therefore,this article attempts to study the economic cycle synchronization from the specific areas-Beijing city,Tianjin city and Hebei province.This paper selected economic data of our country from1978 to 2014 to have an empirical research on the economic cycle synchronization among Beijing city,Tianjin city and Hebei province by using the HP filter method and Markov regime transfer model,which is combined with the status quo of the development of Beijing city,Tianjin city and Hebei province.It would reveal the economic cycle regime characteristics and economic cycle of the degree of synchronization among Beijing city,Tianjin city and Hebei province.The results show that: the first,the " shrink" and "expansion" growth area of the average growth rate in each district among Beijing city,Tianjin city and Hebei province are not the same,which is higher in the "expansion" while lower in the " shrink " of.Through the district of transfer probability matrix,we can get that it has the high stability in the "expansion" of,namely the economic cycle has certain non symmetry;secondly,the economic cycle synchronization among Beijing city,Tianjin city and Hebei province is stronger,and Beijing city and Tianjin city business cycle synchronization is the strongest and Hebei Province and Beijing is the weakest.This paper hopes to provide a basis and reference to the regional economic cycle for the implementation of the Beijing cit,Tianjin city and Hebei province.