Measurement And Interational Comparison Of Petroleum Security In China From The Perspective Of Non-Traditional Security

With the continuous growth of China's oil consumption and the continuous improvement of external dependence,the protection of China's oil security has become an important strategic issue that affecting national security and social stability.Nowadays China is gradually promoting the industrialization and urbanization strategy,the three major energy consumption scale and imports were rising trend.China's coal,oil and natural gas consumption were 2.81,0.73 and 0.24 billion tons of standard coal,accounting for 66.0%,17.1% and 5.7% of the total energy consumption respectively in 2014,according to the National Bureau of Statistics and China's General Administration of Customs.In 2014,China's oil and natural gas imports were308 million tons and 58.3 billion cubic meters respectively,with external dependence of 59.6% and 31.0%.At the same time,today's energy security is not simply by the need and supply decisions,in which non-traditional security factors like economic,social and environmental that have had a significant impact on energy security.Henry Kissinger said that control the oil to control all countries,that means oil security is the core of contemporary energy security.For China,one of the world's second largest economies which still rely on coal as the main energy pillar and rely heavily on oil,it is imperative to re-examines China's oil security situation under the new normal situation and evaluates China's oil security from the perspective of non-traditional security,and to find out the oil security loopholes then put forward effective countermeasures.Based on the non-traditional security perspective,this paper selects 21 indexes such as oil self-sufficiency rate,strategic oil reserve scale and so on from three aspects that are economic security,social security and environmental security.And makes an empirical analysis and international comparative study on China's oil security situation which including 12 sample countries that are United States,Britain,Canada,Germany,France,Australia,Italy,Japan,Korea,India,Brazil and China.The study found that,in sample countries,China's comprehensive level of oil security living in the middle position,although in recent years has improved,but still far below the United States,Japan and other developed countries.From the point of view of oil security,oil-related economic security,social security and environmental security have risen,among which economic security is relatively weak,social securityis relatively good,environmental security is in the middle position,but the gap of environmental security level between sample countries is expanding.Analysis from the perspective of specific indicators,the main factors affecting China's oil security include strategic oil reserves,oil consumption intensity,oil consumption growth,oil consumption carbon intensity and renewable energy consumption accounted for the proportion of total energy consumption.Through the measurement of oil security and international comparison,we find that oil economic security has a greater impact on the overall level of oil security,and oil trade security is the key to oil economic security.So we selected data from 2000 to2014 about China import oil from 31 sample countries to study the impact of oil security factors.The empirical results show that,on the one hand,domestic demand and international supply have a significant impact on the security of China's oil import trade,and its impact is basically in line with the theoretical expectation;On another hand,the oil trade distance is inversely proportional to the volume of oil trade,and the transport risk has a negative impact on the security of oil trade.In addition,the promotion of bilateral political relations can enhance the oil trade volume and promote the security of oil import trade to a certain extent.Through the above empirical results,this paper put forward relevant suggestions.