The Substitution And Compensation Mechanism Of Conventional Energy And New Energy In Northwest China

The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued "The thirteen five-year-plan (2016-2020) of power development"on November 20, 2016, which put forward the green development as the main line to make the non-fossil energy consumption share achieve 15% in 2020. The focus of the plan is the vigorously development of hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic, nuclear power and other non-fossil energy power and the clean transformation of coal and other fossil energy. Northwest China is an important base of new energy, which is abundant with wind and solar energy resources. Although the scale of new energy development has been expanding, some regions in Northwest China where full of new energy are still existing the phenomenon of abandoned wind and solar. Therefore, in order to promote the clean alternative and the implement of the clean transformation of energy, it is very significant to study the replacement and compensation mechanism between conventional energy and new energy to promote the consunption of new energy in Northwest China.Firstly, this paper analyzes the feasibility of the substitute transaction between conventional energy and new energy on the basis of the analysis of the current situation and the output characteristics of conventional and new energy power in Northwest China.Secondly, it summarizes the current trend of the power system reform, studies its impact on the exchange transactions in electricity market, and designs the substitution mode of conventional energy and new energy in the new situation. At the same time, the"wind-solar-thermal" joint substitution and compensation mechanism based on the cooperation game is put forward, which contains the thermal power (conventional energy generator), wind power and photovoltaic (new energy generators). And the empirical analysis is made. The results of empirical analysis show that there is a net increase income in the "wind-solar-thermal" joint substitution mechanism, and all parties in the cooperative alliance tends to involve in the alliance when the income is shared by Shapley value method. In addition, this paper carries out dynamic analysis of the factors which may influence the design and compensation results of the substitution and compensation mechanism of conventional energy and new energy. Through the learning curve model to forecast the generation cost of wind power and photovoltaic power, it is shown that the cost of wind power and photovoltaic power generation will decrease as the technology progresses and the increase of power supply scale. In the end, this paper designs dynamic substitution transaction and compensation mechanism of conventional energy and new energy according to the dynamic cost analysis of different types of power generation and the dynamic analysis of new energy subsidy policy. Finally it divides into three stages: the present stage, the transition stage and the maturity stage, which provides reference for the design of compensation mechanism of conventional energy and new energy in the future.