Study On The Food Security Measures And Production Potential In Guizhou Province

Food security is an important foundation for economic development,social stability and national security.China is a densely populated and agricultural resource scarce country,food security has always been a major problem that facing the government departments.Guizhou is a multi-ethnic integration province,which with the most large rurual poor population in China,the fragile conditions of agricultural production lead to millions of rural population in poverty.Food security issues make great difference to local social stability,to the economic development and the realization of a well off society in an all round way.Most of the current research on food security were concentrated at national level or the main grain producing areas,as for the southwestern areas such as Guizhou province,few research involved.This paper studied the problems of food security in Guizhou,and explored the path to protect food security in the province even the southwest China.It's of great practical significance to promote the social and economic development of the western region to achieve a well-off society in an all-round way.First of all,this paper analysed the current situation of food production and consumption in Guizhou province,and made a comprehensive and systematic analysis of its production resources,agricultural economy,food production and consumption.Secondly,the paper evaluated the situation of food security in Guizhou province,using four primary indicators including grain yield fluctuation coefficient,per capita grain occupation,grain self-sufficiency rate and grain inventory level to carry out the single evaluation of food security situation.Then,the paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation indicator system from four aspects of resource input,production,circulation and consumption,using entropy method to give weight to each indicator.Thirdly,the paper studied the potential of grain production in Guizhou province.A comparative analysis of the cost of grain production in Guizhou and the whole China will been made and the Aggregated Advantage Index will been calculated.The grain output of Guizhou province was predicted by three methods including linear regression,logistic model and incremental rate method,and grain consumption demand was predicted by Grey Forecasting method.Based on the forecasting results of both supply and demand,the balance of grain produce and demand in 2030 was prodicted.Finally,the paper explored the ways to promote grain output growth,and countermeasures and suggestions were been puted forward to ensure food security in Guizhou province.The main conclusions of this paper include:(1)Since the beginning of the 21 st century,the growth rate of grain in Guizhou province has been slow down and the output was fluctuated greatly.With the rising demand for consumption,the gap between supply and demand of grain gradually expanded.(2)The grain in Guizhou province characterised by large fluctuations in production,low level in the per capita share,small scale in reserves,most years since 1980 were food insecurity.However,the overall food security index from 1998 to 2014 was on the rise,fiscal expenditure on agriculture,road density,per capita arable land area and effective irrigation area are the main factors that affected food security.(3)Grain production in Guizhou province has no comparative advantage compared with the whole country.The growth of grain production mainly came from the increase of potato output.With the steady decrease of grain production and arable area,the way to promote the grain output of Guizhou province is to increase the yield per unit area and improve the production efficiency.(4)With the growing demand for food consumption of Guizhou province,relying on its supply to meet the demand is extremely difficult.The future food supply and demand gap will continue to expand,the food external dependence will gradually increase.Purchasing food from other provinces to meet its demand has become a “new norm”,there is a trend that Guizhou is evoluting from marketing balance area to food sales area.(5)For guarantee the food security of Guizhou province,in addition to improving the basic food production capacity,regional grain base and logistics system need to been build to enhance the ability to obtain food from other places.