Research On Price Fluctuation And Early Warning Of Beijing Pork Market

Pork is the production of all kinds of dishes indispensable ingredients,occupies an important position in the dietary structure.At the same time pig breeding is the leading industry of animal husbandry in China,which is an important way to solve the problem of rural employment and farmers' income increasing.In recent years,the sharp fluctuations in pork prices have had a negative impact on people's living and pig farming.Beijing,as the capital of our country and a large city,has a unique market structure of pork.Therefore,it is of great significance to carry out early warning of Beijing pork market price fluctuation and early warning research,analyze the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of pork market in Beijing,and establish early warning index system to accurately grasp the operation of pork market in Beijing and stabilize pork price.This article takes the market price of pork in Beijing as the research objects,Based on the theory of economic cycle,price theory and early warning theory,this paper analyzes the price fluctuation characteristics and price fluctuation factors of pork market in Beijing by using time series decomposition method,vector autoregressive model and index early warning method.On this basis,this paper builds the early warning index system and the early warning model,carries on the warning to the price fluctuation.The main research contents and conclusions include the following four parts:The first part is to describe the characteristics of Beijing pork market and price fluctuations.It is concluded that the characteristics of pork market in Beijing are as follows: the supply rate of pork is low and the dependence of external dependence is deepened,and the external supply is concentrated in the production and location advantages area.In the circulation of processing,the circulation process is complicated and slaughtered.In the consumption chain,the population base and the floating population are large,and the residents' consumption is basically stable,but the group consumption fluctuates greatly.In addition,the trend of pork price fluctuation in Beijing was analyzed by X12 season adjustment and HP Filter.It was concluded that the price of pork in Beijing was fluctuating for a long time,with an average fluctuation period of 4 years and the random and seasonal fluctuations have increased.The second part is to analyze the influencing factors of Beijing pork market price fluctuation.First,through qualitative analysis,the long-term influencing factors of price fluctuation in Beijing pork market come from supply,demand and other aspects.The supply level includes several factors such as pork self-sufficiency rate,pork supply structure,production scale and industrial organization level.The supply level includes several factors such as population size and structure,income level,consumption habits.In addition,there are other factors such as disease,traffic,extreme weather and so on.Then,through the empirical analysis,the short-term fluctuation factors of pork price in Beijing are mainly from the production fluctuation in the neighboring provinces such as Hebei,Liaoning and Henan,and the price transmission of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.The third part is to establish the early warning model of pork price fluctuation in Beijing.First of all,the index system of pork price in Beijing is constructed,and the short-term factors of pork price fluctuation are taken as indicators of warning signs,and the difference index is divided into the first index and the consistent index by using the time difference correlation analysis.Then u+1.3?,u+0.8?,u-0.8? and u-1.3? were used as four warning thresholds by means of statistical method and expert judgment.And then,the comprehensive warning index is calculated and the warning result is displayed by using the signal lamp.Finally,the early warning effect is evaluated,and it is found that the early warning effect of this early warning system has good advance,accuracy and comprehensiveness.The fourth part puts forward some suggestions to strengthen the early warning of price fluctuation in Beijing pork market.It is pointed out that the price warning system should be improved,the crisis emergency mechanism should be formulated and the supply channels of stable pig should be stabilized.