Study On The Fluctuation Risk And Early Warning Of Pig Price

In the animal food consumption demand of residents in our country in pork occupies a major position,the pig growth cycle is long,its price is affected by the pig cycle and unbalanced supply and demand,pig price volatility for farmers production and business operation decision caused difficulties,directly affect their income level.reduce their enthusiasm for production,at the same time,it also restricted the stable development of pig industry,strengthen the research on the laws of the live pig price cycle,objective understanding of fluctuation law on farmers,reasonable to enter the market to avoid blind expansion of production,use of pig cycle for pig farmers to provide production and management decision-making,Make pig raisers achieve the goal of raising good pigs and selling them at a good price.In this paper,through literature analysis to summarize scholars research progress,the price fluctuation of live pigs to qualitative Angle from the biological characteristics of live pigs,the cobweb theory,theory of behavioral economics,and other forms of combining interpretation mechanism of price fluctuation of live pigs,to the point of view of quantitative empirical analysis through the real data of price fluctuation law,China,the United States,Japan's live pig market shows price fluctuation characteristics,illustrates the pig price fluctuation law of objectivity.The production cycle rule of biological characteristics of live pigs,cobweb theory,prospect theory and the combination of multiple theories and methods to reduce the fundamental reasons for the supply of live pigs were adopted to construct the sketch diagram of the rule of live pigs price fluctuation and explain the mechanism of live pigs price fluctuation.In the rising process of the pig cycle,the fluctuation time is restricted by the biological laws of pigs,and the average rising period is 17-18 months.When the ratio of pig to grain is above the break-even point,the law of live pig supply conforms to the law of hysteresis of spider web model.When the price of live pigs is in the deficit period,the production is arranged according to the decision rule of reflection utility of prospect theory.Therefore,the supply of live pigs in the next period does not decrease but continues to increase without external adverse influence factors.In the period of deep losses,farmers will not take the initiative to reduce the supply of live pigs,so the passive way to reduce production capacity is mainly manifested as severe disease and capital chain rupture and the combination of the two,resulting in farmers being forced to withdraw from the market.In order to better understand the pig price fluctuation characteristics,using the BP network model,the empirical analysis based on pig prices intrinsic factors,from January 2000 to September 2018 live pig prices relevant data,using the previous grain than,piglet prices,swine bone pork prices,as a representative of the pig industry all variables,set up the research on the relation between price vertical conduction model.The model can be scientific "trend" of commodity prices early warning,and get the prediction test accuracy is higher,test results show that the fitting degree is 0.99,through early warning analysis between 2016 to 2018,the change degree is more sensitive than pig food,production and operation of farmers decision-making is of good guidance.This paper makes an in-depth study and discussion on the early warning of pig price from both theoretical and empirical aspects.The purpose is to provide forward-looking early warning information for the government,reasonably plan input and production guidance,reduce unnecessary losses,and promote the healthy and stable development of the pig market.