The Impact Of China's Labor Supply On Economic Growth And Its Forecast

Recently,with the emergence of China's labor supply inflection point,followed by the era of labor shortage and post-population dividend era.Faced with the new demographic structure and economic situation,we can not help but think about the impact of demographic changes in the past,present and future on the economic growth of what kind of impact.In this paper,the population structure and the track of economic growth in the past several decades are analyzed,and the index system for evaluating the population structure is constructed.On the basis of this,in order to explore the future supply of labor for economic growth in the end what kind of impact,this paper predicts the future population size and labor force changes,taking into account the future introduction of delayed retirement policy factors,forecasting labor supply to economic growth will have what kind of impact,and comparative analysis,draw the following conclusions:Firstly,from the horizontal and vertical effects of two angles to start,test found that the representative of the labor force changes in the indicators to explain its economic growth on the impact.The dividend effect of labor supply on economic growth is weakening due to the declining number of working age population and rising dependency ratio.At the same time,the positive impact of labor input,employment population transfer between urban and rural industries and the optimization of educational quality on China's economic growth is significant at 1% level.Labor supply indicators can be used to explain their positive impact on economic growth.Secondly,Through the forecast of the impact of labor supply on economic growth,it was found that by 2030,due to the rapid decline in the number of laborers and the slow increase in the quality of laborers,the economic growth experienced a certain degree of decline,but after 2030.With the quality of the increase to speed up,although the number of labor supply is still declining,but overall GDP growth rate remained stable.At the same time,the implementation of a delayed retirement policy can alleviate the negative impact of the aging population on the economy,reduce the negative impact of the reduction in labor supply,and keep GDP stable and in a reasonable range the role of the device.Thirdly,policy has a significant positive effect on economic growth rate.The data calculation results show that there was a correlation between the change of the change rate of GDP and population structure,policy not only for the negative impact of population structure on economic growth may have a remedy,but also makes the GDP remain stable at a reasonable range,plays a role of stabilizer.Suggestion: Improve labor efficiency and reduce non-full employment rate;Strengthen the economic restructuring,vigorously develop the aging industry,to find new economic growth point;Continue to deepen the adjustment of industrial structure,promote the upgrading of population industry structure,optimize the structure of human capital;Implement reasonable policy interventions,optimize population structure,and promote economic growth.