The Research On Risk Management Of Old Residential Urban Renewal Projects In Shenzhen City

In the context of China's “new normal”,urban renewal has become one of the main directions of urban development.Under the dual pressure of urban development land bottlenecks as well as the transformation and upgrading of urban industrial structure,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen have taken the lead in promoting urban renewal.Shenzhen,as the vanguard of reform and opening up,whose practice of urban renewal is also walking in the forefront of our country.Since the promulgation of the " Urban Renewal Measures of Shenzhen Municipality" in 2009,Shenzhen has established a comprehensive policy system for urban renewal including policies on all levels of laws and regulations,policies,technical standards in only five years.With several years of practice,the urban renewal in Shenzhen has made great achievements: providing a large number of construction land for Shenzhen,promoting the transformation and upgrading of the industry,stimulating economic growth and improving the living environment.But in the meanwhile,urban renewal in Shenzhen has also exposed many problems,the most serious problem is that the difficulty in promoting urban renewal project in old residential areas seriously hampered the development of urban renewal.Since 2009,a total of nine old residential urban renewal projects have been approved.Among the approved projects,in addition to Shahe Hetang district which has small-scale and highly centralized ownership,there is no other successful projects.The main reason for this result is the lack of knowledge about risk factors and the lack of scientific methods for risk identification and evaluation.It is very important to study the risk management of urban renewal projects in old residential area.According to the general rule of urban development,most of the cities in C hina will enter the urban renewal era in the near future.Therefore,the research on the risk management of the urban renewal project in the old residential area in Shenzhen will not only contribute to the effective implementation of the urban renewal project of the old residential area in Shenzhen,but also provide some reference for the urban renewal project risk management of other cities in C hina.In this respect,the paper quantitatively analyzes the key risks of the old urban renewal projects and makes a scientific evaluation by using statistical analysis and questionnaire.Finally,put forward risk control measures for these key risks.The main achievements of this research are as follows:(1)Through the questionnaire survey and factor analysis,the key risk factors of the urban renewal project of the old residential area were extracted.Based on the literature research and expert study,this paper makes a preliminary identification of the possible risks of the urban renewal project of the old residential area in Shenzhen,including a total of 29 risk factors.O n this basis,this preliminary risk factor was analyzed by means of questionnaire and factor analysis.And summed up six risk factors,such as project management and control,social and policy,development of regional,economic,market and development of enterprise management.(2)Construct the risk evaluation index system of urban renewal project in old residential areaIn this paper,the identified key risk factors of the urban renewal projects in old residential area are used as the index source to construct the risk evaluation index system of this type of project.Through the factor analysis method to determine the weight of all levels of indicators,combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to build the old residential area urban renewal project risk assessment model.And quantitatively calculate the risk level of the project and identify the important risk factors for each project to provide scientific decision-making basis for risk management.(3)Put forward the corresponding control measures for the key risk factors of the urban renewal project in the old residential areaBased on the theory of general risk control methods such as risk aversion,risk transfer,risk mitigation and risk retention,this paper puts forward the corresponding risk control measures for every key risk factors in combination with literature research and expert interviews.And summarizes the list of the key risk control measures for the urban renewal project of the old residential area in Shenzhen.When faced with the above risks in the implementation of the o ld residential urban renewal projects,the developers can directly find the corresponding risk control measures from the table.