| Food security is an important issue related to our national economy and people’s livelihood,Since 2004,No.1 central document continued to focus on the three rural issues.Sichuan province is located in the hinterland of Southwest China,and its food security plays an important role in maintaining social stability in Sichuan and southwest China.After years of development,the planting structure and temporal and spatial distribution of grain yield in Sichuan province have changed,so it is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyze the temporal and spatial pattern of grain production in Sichuan province and the influencing factors of grain yield.Using the data of total grain production and yields of major grain crops from 1997 to 2015,we researched the variation of total grain production and plating structure in Sichuan Province.Using the data of county grain production,this paper studied the spatial agglomeration and dispersion state and the transformation of the focus of grain production in Sichuan Province.Choosing 16 indicators from national policy,the farmer’ input and output efficiency,the level of agricultural science and technology,natural disasters,this paper used principal component analysis,grey correlation analysis to measure the influence degree of the 16 indexes of grain yield,the main results are as follows:(1)From 1997 to 2015,the grain yield of Sichuan province was stable.Year 1997 to 1999,2002 to 2012,grain yield was in the stage of increase;Year 2000 to 2001,2013 to 2014,grain yield was in the period of reduction.(2)From 1997 ―2015,Sichuan food crops planting structure appeared many times change,rice production was on the decline,but was the main food crops all along.Wheat production proportion dropped year by year,corn and potato proportion was on the rise,and the trend of corn growth rapidly.(3)Moran’s I index was positive,and was basically between 0.545 ― 0.599,the spatial distribution of grain production in Sichuan province had a significant agglomeration effect;High-High zones were mainly distributed in the northeastern Sichuan basin and central cities and counties,and gradually narrow to two small high value centers,covering area was decreasing;Low-Low type were mainly distributed in Ganzi,Aba,and the facility scope gradually expanded to the southern Sichuan Leshan,Liangshan,Panzhihua;From 1997 to 2015,the center of gravity were in the Lezhi,and basically showed a trend of "south-east".(4)According to the results of the Principal Component Analysis(PCA),the factors that affected grain yield from strong to weak were consumption of nitrogenous fertilizer,consumption of phosphate fertilizer,economic crops crop sown area percentage,consumption of potash fertilizer,grain labor,urbanization rate,electricity consumed in rural area,flood affected area,agriculture accounts for the fiscal expenditure scale,grain purchase price index,per capita net income of rural residents,area ploughed by tractors,irrigated area,farmers per capita expense per capita expenditure proportion of production.(5)Study period was divided into 1997―2000,2001―2005,2006―2010,2011―2015 four research periods,using the grey correlation analysis method,then calculated the relation degree between the factors and grain production,from the point of correlation was strong or weak.All the time,the correlation degree of factors and grain output wad given priority to with strong correlation,no weak correlation.On the whole,from 1997 to 2015,agricultural policy and grain production in Sichuan province correlation integral showed a trend of increase,and agricultural policy showed an enhancement effects on food production;the factors of input-output of grain had not a obvious effect on grain yield;agricultural science and technology level of overall showed a trend of decrease in the influence of grain production;Drought covered area,flood disaster area had a relatively low correlation with grain production,but the influence of natural disasters should not be neglected. |
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