China's Risk Analysis Of Direct Investment In Countries Along The Silk Road Economic Belt

China's outward foreign direct investment(COFDI)has developed rapidly since the 21st century.According to the data released by the Ministry Commerce of the People's Republic of China,COFDI flows grew at an average annual rate of 36%in 2002-2015.COFDI flows reached $ 145.67 billion in 2015,and it was the first time ranked at the second place among global countries.In 2016,China's "One Road One Belt" strategy has come into the full implementation stage.Under the background,the countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt" are gradually becoming important destinations for COFDI.As of 2015,COFDI in the "Silk Road Economic Belt" reached$ 43.38 billion,accounting for 4%of the total stock of the year,doubling the share in 2003.COFDI in countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt" is rapidly developing,but the failure cases appear frequently at the same time and China has to face many risks that relevant to economy,politics,society and other.What characteristics have the countries along "Silk Road Economic Belt" shown?What are their risks?Which risks are more important?These problems are urgent to discuss and solve.At present,some domestic and foreign research on national risk have appeared,but a subject for specific regional investment risk research is rare.In this study,22 countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt" were selected as the research object.Based on the data of COFDI in the "Silk Road Economic Belt",this paper analyzed the overall characteristics and risk of COFDI in the "Silk Road Economic Belt" countries through ArcGIS10.0,UCINET6.0 and Excel as tools.The study also used the entropy weight method and cluster analysis method to categorize investment risks into 4 classes and economic,political,social risk are divided into four categories.And then in the investment risk zone of the Class ?,?,?,?,Afghanistan,Kazakhstan,India,Russia were selected as typical countries,using a complex network for an empirical analysis.The research data mainly from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce,the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs,statistical bulletin of COFDI,the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development,the World Bank official website,the World Development Indicators database and so on.The countries along the "Silk RoadEconomic Belt" and world base map data are mainly derived from the GADM database.The conclusions are as follows:(1)COFDI in the "Silk Road Economic Belt" has developed rapidly,but it also faces many risks,such as economy,politics and society.From 2003 to 2015,COFDI stock in countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt" has soared quickly.Among these countries,Russia is the one which attracts the most COFDI volume during a long time.Kyrgyzstan,Myanmar,India,Israel,Pakistan are also ranked the top ten investment destination.China's major investment programs to the "Silk Road Economic Belt" countries are mainly concentrated in the mining industry,some technical services,transportation,real estate,finance and agriculture,etc.Meanwhile,China faces economic,political,social and other investment risks.On the economic front,economic level of the countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt" is uneven,and the modes of economic development are different.The countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt" are mainly emerging economies and developing countries and the investment risks and opportunities coexist.On the political front,the "Silk Road Economic Belt" covers a wide range of countries.Some of them are geopolitical "broken zones",and the geographical relations are complex.Some countries are even instable in politics and have some uncertain problems.On the social front,the 22 countries along "Silk Road Economic Belt" have different culture,religious customs,ethnic background and social security.People in different countries have different consumption patterns and preferences,and the relationship between them and us is unpredicted which is also resulting in different investment risk along the "Silk Road Economic Belt" countries.(2)At the national level,China faces a large difference in investment risk,which can be divided into four types of investment risk areas along the countries.The FDI risks from China to "Silk Road Economic Belt" countries are in the order of?Syria,Afghanistan,Iraq,Uzbekistan,Tajikistan,Myanmar,Pakistan,Bangladesh,Ukraine,Kyrgyzstan,Armenia,Belarus,Jordan,Mongolia,Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan,Iran,Georgia,India,Israel,Russia,Turkmenistan.According to the investment risk assessment value,the "Silk Road Economic Belt" countries will be divided into four categories:Class I investment risk zone(3 countries):Syria,Afghanistan and Iraq.Class II investment risk zone(14 countries):Uzbekistan,Tajikistan,Myanmar,Pakistan,Bangladesh,Ukraine,Kyrgyzstan,Armenia,Belarus,Jordan,Mongolia,Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan and Iran.Class ? investment risk zone(3 countries):Georgia,India and Israel.Class IV investment risk zone(2 countries):Russia and Turkmenistan.(3)The empirical analysis of four countries in Afghanistan,Kazakhstan,India and Russia shows both differences and commonality in investment risk.China's largest FDI risk in Afghanistan is total reserves/external debt,(import + export)/GDP and property,discourse and accountability.COFDI risks in Kazakhstan are in order of GDP,property,discourse and accountability,(foreign direct investment + outward foreign direct investment)/GDP,per capita GDP,intentional homicide mortality,unemployment,total reserves/foreign debt and GDP growth.China's major risk factors for FDI in India are ranked of total reserves/external debt,government performance index,total external debt/GDP,unemployment rate,GDP,per capita GDP,political stability and non-violence and intentional homicide mortality.China's ranking of major risk factors for FDI in Russia is the unemployment rate,property,discourse and accountability,(import + export)/GDP,government performance index,corruption control index,GDP growth and total reserves/external debt.The possible innovation of this research is that through the establishment of the risk evaluation index system,the investment risk of 22 countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt" is quantitatively analyzed,and the differences in China's investment risk along the route are found by classification.Afghanistan,Kazakhstan,India,Russia are specific analyzed,identifying the importance of factors and the ranking of the situation when China investing in the typical countries.