A Study On The Forecast And Evolution Trend Of The Transportation Volume Of China's Crude Oil Import

Crude Oil,which is widely regarded as non-renewable energy,is not only essential to people's daily life but also to the national defense.China starts to import the crude oil since the establishment of People's Republic of China,but the crude oil import volume is just 143,000 ton per year then.Later,together with the development on the technology of oil exploration and exploitation,China begins to be self-sufficiency on crude oil,even,on the year of 1995,China exports 11,450,000 tons crude oil to foreign countries.However,as the economic booms in China,Chinese eventually recognizes the importance of this non-renewable energy and,then,China goes on to import crude oil with more and more volume.Basis on the statistics from China's General Administration of Customs,on the year of 2016,the crude oil import volume reaches 381,000,000 tons within China.Being faced with the long-term high dependence on crude oil import,people feel it is extremely essential to make a study on China's crude oil import transportation structure evolution.In general,China's crude oil import transportation structure starts with transportation by trains and cars,which is poor in efficiency.Then China begins to have crude oil import by vessels,especially for VLCCs,carrying the crude oil to the coast of China.And now there are multiple transportation methods combined with shipping,pipage and so on.In this paper,firstly,it studies the background and meaning of this case,together with some other available studies at home or aboard which are also on this case.Then it advises the concept related to this paper,including theory of prediction.What's more,this paper analyzes present import and transportation structure of China's crude oil,including the shipping and pipage.Then it makes a prediction of the transportation structure evolution with the method of Time Sequence Trend Analysis,Multiple Linear Regression and Back Propagation Neural Network.Finally this paper describes the transportation structure of the China's crude oil import in the future and release some advises.