Study On Industrial Structure Adjustment In Central Region Under The Constraint Of Carbon Emission

Disasters and extreme weather occurred frequently, which made the global climate problems become the hot affairs in the world. With the development of economy and the expansion of population, the impact of human activities on nature is so serious that they broke the quantity balance of carbon dioxide, which caused climate issues to be more serious climate issues more serious. Implementation of low carbon economy was reached an agreement that it can not only effectively avoid catastrophic climate change, but also achieve sustainable development. One of the most effective ways to develop low carbon economy is to optimize and upgrade the industrial structure.The central region of China plays a significant role in economic field and geographic locations. However, there still exists irrational industrial structure problem, that is economic development mostly depend on resources and carbon emissions excess. Therefore, it is a fundamental way for balancing economic growth and ecological protection to implement the industrial upgrading and gradually transform to a low carbon development mode. In recent studies, there is less research on carbon emission problem in central region, especially for subdividing the industrial sectors. This paper focuses on the carbon emission effect on industrial structure adjustment in central region, trying to provide references and recommendations for development strategy of low carbon industrial system.First, this paper analyzes the recent evolution of the industrial structure and the characteristics of carbon emission trends in central region, and makes a qualitative research on the effect of carbon emission caused by industrial structure changes. Then, this study makes an empirical analysis by constructing a model of influence of industrial structure on carbon emission, and makes a regression using 2000-2014 panel data of six provinces in central region. Finally, in order to stimulate industrial structure optimization program which is under the constraints of carbon emission, it builds a goal programming model. In the model, the goal is to minimizing carbon emission index, and there are constraints on economy scale, full employment and carbon emission. Using the 2014 data to get result, we can make a comparison of economic situation after industrial structure optimization with current situation. The results of the simulation to optimize the industrial structure demonstrate that the adjustment of industrial structure has some positive effect on economic growth, reducing carbon emission and promoting employment. Changes in the proportion of industry in every province present consistent characteristics: compressing industrial scale reasonably, expanding other services substantially and controlling the changes in the proportion of agriculture, transportation, post and storage services and construction.