Non-resource Risk Evaluation For Overseas Petroleum Investment

With the increasing of oil consumption,the domestic oil production can not meet the domestic demand.In order to ensure national energy security,China must increase overseas petroleum investment.But in overseas petroleum investment process,China's petroleum enterprises may face political,economic,legal,social,and other risks brought by the uncertainty factors,so how to accurately identify and evaluate risk is the key issues that enterprises need to concern.The risk of overseas petroleum investment can be divided into two broad categories,including resource risk and non-resource risk.Resource risk evaluation have mature method research in petroleum geology and petroleum engineering,etc.Non-resource risk are considered a little in overseas petroleum investment decisions,but its impact on investment should not be ignored.So this paper mainly studies non-resource risk evaluation.According to the meaning of general risk,this paper simulates the meaning of non-resource risk,namely the investment risk brought by the uncertainty factors except oil resources.This paper use the risk factor analysis in advance and fishbone diagram analysis to identify the risk factors.However,both are qualitative analysis method,it may lead the results of identification to occur inaccuracy affected by personal experience.So this paper combines the literature measurement to design a comprehensive and accurate non-resource risk evaluation index system through studying the predecessors' index system.After analyzing a variety of evaluation methods,this paper establish the entropy-improved TOPSIS model.It can give weight objectively based on the index data information and caculate the deviation between each evaluation scheme and the positive ideal solution,then determine the advantages and disadvantages of each evaluation scheme through the rank of evaluation scheme.This paper select the 47 major resource countries worldwide.Then according to the risk evaluation index system to collect primitive data through the official institutions,such as the International Country Risk Guidelines,the Energy Information Administration,the World Economic Forum,Ministry of Commerce the People's Republic of China,etc.Finally,using the entropy-improved TOPSIS model to rank the non-resource risk of each resource countries,and analyze the risk indicators that have greater influnce on resource countries' non-resource risk.This can help our petroleum enterprises to take measures timely to avoid risk.