Study On Influence Factors And Prediction Of Carbon Emissions From Transport Sector In China

Since the industrial revolution,global warming is becoming more and more serious.The existing research has shown that the large increase of greenhouse gas emissions,such as CO₂,is the most important cause of global warming.Therefore,all countries began to formulate feasible policies and measures for carbon emission reduction.China is the largest developing country in the world,and the largest energy consumer,facing many carbon emission reduction pressures.Transport sector is the basic service industry of China's economic development,and it is also one of the fastest growing areas of carbon emissions in China.It highlights the huge emission reduction potential of transport sector,and thus has become an important direction of energy-saving and emission-reduction in China.Therefore,from the perspective of industry development and energy consumption,this paper makes a comprehensive and in-depth study on influence factors of carbon emissions from transport sector in China,and identifies the main influence factors,which lays a critical theoretical foundation for our country to formulate the emission reduction targets and measures that meet the environmental requirements and their own development.In this paper,carbon emission from transport sector in China is taken as the research object,and carbon emission coefficient method of IPCC is used to calculate carbon emissions from transport sector in China from 2000 to 2015.Based on analysis of the above results,this paper introduces 6 factors such as population size,per capita GDP,the value added of transport sector,traffic intensity,traffic energy intensity and traffic energy structure.It studies characteristics of the time series and spatial distribution on influence factors of carbon emissions from transport sector in China,and forecasts carbon emissions from transport sector in China from 2016 to 2030.The main contents of this paper are as follows:?1?Based on the calculated carbon emissions from transport sector in China,we quantitatively analyze the characteristics and external relations of carbon emissions.The research shows that carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions from transport sector in China are obviously increasing;the energy structure of carbon emission is still dominated by petroleum products,and it has a larger optimization space;carbon emissions from transport sector in China is highly dependent on the industry economic growth and the decoupling state is poor.?2?According to researches of the existing literature,the main influence factors of carbon emissions from transport sector in China are screened out to construct the extended STIRPAT model.And influence factors of carbon emissions from large to small are:population size,traffic energy structure,traffic intensity,traffic energy intensity,the value added of transport sector and per capita GDP.At the same time,using LMDI to analyze contribution of influence factors from 2000 to 2015,and contribution value of the ranking results is per capita GDP,traffic intensity,traffic energy intensity,industrial structure,population size and traffic energy structure.?3?China's resource distribution and economic development are not balanced.So this paper introduces the concept of space to analyze carbon emissions and its influence factors from transport sector.First,Moran's I index is used to analyze spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions from transport sector in China.The results show that there is a significant spatial autocorrelation in carbon emissions from provincial transport sector in China.Subsequently,we use GWR model to analyze spatial difference on influence factors of carbon emissions from provincial transport sector in China.At the provincial level,influence factors of carbon emissions from large to small are:per capita GDP,population size,traffic intensity,traffic energy intensity and industrial structure.?4?According to influence factors,GM?1,1?model is used to predict influence factors of carbon emissions from transport sector in China.Based on prediction results,the future development trend of carbon emissions from transport sector in China from 2016 to 2030 is obtained by using BP neural network.The results show that carbon emissions from transport sector in China will increase year by year in the next 15 years.By 2030,carbon emissions from transport sector in China will reach240.02 million tons;the growth of carbon emissions from transport sector has slowed down,but more practical policies and measures are still needed to reduce carbon emissions from transport sector.?5?According to the current development situation of transport sector in China,the relevant policy suggestions are put forward from influence factors of carbon emissions from transport sector in China.