Research On The Potential Of Electricity Substitution And The Measurement Of Its Economic And Environmental Benefits

In recent years,the frequent occurrence of air pollution,environmental pollution and severe haze,coal-based energy structure is the main cause of environmental pollution.It highlights the unsustainability of China's coal-based energy structure and industrial development path of high input,high consumption and high emissions.which drives the development of energy consumption towards "clean alternatives"based on energy development and "electricity substitution" for terminal energy consumption.In 2013,State Grid Corporation proposed a "electricity substitution"strategy.For the terminal consumer market,we actively advocate a new energy consumption model of "returning coal by electricity,replacing oil with electricity,and electricity from afar,coming from clean electricity",and the electricity substitution has now risen to the national strategy.With the establishment of sound national policies,continuous advancement of technology,and increasingly standardized industries,the electricity substitution industry has developed rapidly,and the impact on regional power demand has become increasingly significant,and the social environment has improved significantly.Quantifying the impact of electricity substitution on the electricity demand of regional power grids is conducive to better implementation of regional power planning.The economic and environmental benefit assessment of electricity substitution can better evaluate the effect of electricity substitution development.Based on this,on the basis of summarizing the research results of the predecessors,the research on the prediction of electricity substitution potential at the regional level is carried out.First of all,the status quo of electricity substitution is analyzed from four aspects:the status quo of electricity substitution development,technology status,policy status and existing problems.Then,construct the calculation model of electricity substitution potential by analyzing the factors affecting the potential of electric energy substitution from four aspects:social,economic,technical and policy,and clarifying the mechanism of each factor on electric energy substitution,and construct the throrical potential of electricity substitution by equivalent calorific value method.The the actual potential of electricity substitution called SSA-LSSVM model is constracted based on the quantification of electricity substitution.Take Beijing as a empirical analysis object,calculate the throrical potential of Beijing's electricity substitution during the 13th Five-Year Plan period based on the analysis of the total consumption and the structure of Beijing's terminal energy consumption status,and the consumption status of various industries and major industries;By collecting the main policy documents issued by the state,ministries and commissions and the Beijing Municipality in 2012-2017 that promote the development of electricity substitution,the policy texts will be interpreted and each policy text is quantified from policy intensity,policy relevance and detailed level of policy three dimensions,and the total scores of policy effectiveness in each year are calculated.At the same time,three development scenarios are set for policy factors.Which is combined with social factors and economic factors are introduced as a variable in the model to measure the actual potential of electricity substitution in Beijing from 2016 to 2020.By collecting the main policy documents issued by the state,ministries and commissions and the Beijing Municipality in 2012-2017 that promote the development of alternative energy,the policy texts will be interpreted and experts will be scored according to the policy intensity,relevance and level of detail.The effect is further quantified,and the total scores of policy effectiveness in each year are calculated.At the same time,three development scenarios are set for policy factors.Combined with social factors and economic factors,the model is introduced as a variable to measure the actual potential of electric energy replacement in Beijing from 2016 to 2020.On the basis of the calculation of the actual potential of electricity substitution in Beijing,considering the structure of electricity substitution supply side,different scenarios can be set for the alternative fossil energy consumption structure,and then the economic and environmental benefits of electricity substitution are calculated,and a comprehensive objective assessment of electricity substitution is realized.The main innovations of this paper are:(1)comprehensively combing and analyzing the development,technology,policy and existing problems of electricity substitution;Combined with the actual situation,the main factors affecting the electricity substitution and its mechanism of action are studied;(2)using equivalent calorific value method to construct the measurement method of theoretical potential of electricity substitution;(3)the SSA algorithm is combined with the LSSVM method to construct a model to caculate the actual potential of electricity substitution;the electricity substitution policy quantification method is proposed,and the policy is regarded as a variable in the model;(4)Taking Beijing as an empirical analysis object to calculate the economic and environmental benefits realized by electricity substitution actual potential with considering the electricity supply structure on the side of supply based on three kinds of terminal energy consumption structure scenarios,which are compared with economic and environmental benefits of traditional energy consumption modes,to achieve scientific evaluation of electricity substitution.