Research On The Impact Of China's Energy Consumption And Technological Progress On Carbon Emissions

At present,China is in the economic new normal period.Its development has the following characteristics:First,the economic growth rate has changed from high speed to medium speed and economic development has changed from speed-oriented to quality-oriented.Second,major changes have taken place in the economic structure.Third,economic growth has shifted from factor-driven growth to innovation-driven growth.Therefore,in the new normal period,Chinese government should focus on adjusting the energy consumption structure and emphasize the role of technological progress in carbon emission reduction in economic new normal.First,this paper reviews the literature on energy consumption,technological progress and the linkage with carbon emissions at home and abroad;then conduct descriptive statistical analysis of China's energy consumption,technological progress and carbon emissions in 1997-2016;then using the extended STIRPAT model to build the model of the influencing factors of carbon emissions to quantify the impact of various factors on carbon emissions.And according to the annual average economic growth rate of 1997-2016,China's 30 provinces are divided into two groups,respectively high economic growth group and low economic growth.In addition,the two groups were regressed separately.Finally,the shared social economic path(SSPs)and Logistic equation were used to predict China's carbon emissions in 2017-2030.Based on empirical research,the paper draws the following conclusions:(1)Energy consumption has a significant role in promoting carbon emissions in national samples,high economic growth rate samples,and low economic growth rate samples.(2)The independent technology progress has promoted carbon emissions in three samples.In comparison with the low economic growth group,independent technology progress makes a greater contribution on promoting C02 emissions in high economic growth group.(3)The introducing technology progress has an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in the three samples,and the inhibition effect in the high economic growth rate group is significantly lower than that in the low economic growth rate group,and the inhibition effect is no longer significant.(4)When China is in the new normal state,optimizing the energy consumption structure and developing technological progress can achieve effective carbon emission reduction effects.All the prediction results indicate that China can achieve the goal of 60%-65%reduction in carbon intensity in 2030.This paper proposes the following policy recommendations:(1)After the Chinese economy enters the new normal,adjust the economic development model.(2)Optimize the energy consumption structure.(3)Develop green independent technology progress.(4)Actively introduce advanced foreign technology.