Research On High-speed Railway Operation Safety Based On Multi-risk Coupling

Since the 21 st century,China's high-speed railway has entered a stage of rapid development.Its advantages of fast running speed,large transport capacity,good environmental protection,and small footprint have made it an important travel method chosen by the citizens,which has provided important economic development Help.However,the development of China's high-speed railway operation system is still immature and has more risks.This is because China's high-speed railway has a short construction time,a large span,and various equipment is very complex and has high technical requirements.Therefore,the system safety theory should be introduced into the high-speed railway risk management system,and the high-speed railway risk management system should be vigorously developed to reduce the probability of accidents from the perspective of risk management and control.This paper analyzes the risk situation inside the system from the perspective of coupling,and builds a model based on the coupling idea to evaluate the risk coupling situation inside the high-speed railway system,draw the most prone to risk coupling,and propose improvement measures.First of all,through the accident tree analysis method to identify the risks of common accidents in the railway system,based on the risk sources,and finally summarize the risk factors that affect the safe operation of the high-speed railway system,including personnel factors,equipment factors,environmental factors and Management factors,and establish a high-speed railway operation safety evaluation index system based on the above work.Secondly,classify the high-speed railway operation risk coupling,and get the types and number of risk factors involved in coupling in the high-speed railway operation system;then analyze the subsystems of various risk factors and risk coupling in the high-speed railway operation system Mechanism;Finally,15 types of coupling relationships among the four types of risk factors of high-speed railway: human,machine,ring,and management,according to the factors involved in coupling,are analyzed,and 15 accident cases are used to explain the existence of risk coupling.Finally,for homogeneous coupling and heterogeneous coupling,N-K model and coupling degree model are used to calculate and evaluate risk coupling.First,the N-K model was used to quantitatively calculate the coupling risk value,and it was concluded that the more risk factors involved in the coupling,the greater the risk of coupling.Then use the previously obtained high-speed railway operation safety evaluation index system,combined with the Lanxin high-speed railway safety background and risk source data,reduce the ambiguity through expert scoring and cloud model,and calculate the coupling of various risk indicators under environmental factors through the coupling model Degree,the calculationhas obtained a more objective evaluation of the safety risk of Lanxin High Speed Rail.