Operational Safety Risk Analysis And Resilience Evaluation Of Changchun-jilin High-speed Railway

This paper takes Changchun-Jilin high-speed railway as the research object.Firstly,the operation safety characteristics of Changchun-Jilin high-speed railway are analyzed from the operation characteristics,spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of passenger flow.The operation status of Changchun-Jilin high-speed railway is studied to find out the fluctuation rule of passenger flow of Changchun-Jilin high-speed railway.Risk sources are analyzed from man-machine-environment-management aspects,operation types and causes of accidents of Changchun-Jilin high-speed railway are summarized,operation safety risk factors of Changchun-Jilin high-speed railway are comprehensively identified,and core risk factors of Changchun-Jilin high-speed railway operation are found out.Secondly,the influence of bad weather on high-speed railway operation is analyzed to study the connotation and characteristic elements of toughness of highspeed railway operation system.Based on characteristic elements,requirements for evaluation indexes and selection principles,an evaluation index system of toughness of high-speed railway operation system under bad weather is constructed.At the same time,the interdependence between the internal toughness indicators and the mutual feedback between the external ones is analyzed.The network analytic hierarchy process(ANP)is used to complete the description of the mutual relationship between the indicators,and the index weight of the system is calculated with the help of Super Decisions in solving the hypermatrix.By combining the extension theory with the cloud model,it can adapt to the fuzziness and randomness in the evaluation process,build the network toughness network ANP-Extension cloud comprehensive evaluation model for the operation system of high-speed railway in bad weather,and give the toughness evaluation process of high-speed railway operation system in bad weather.Finally,the toughness of Changchun-Jilin high-speed railway operation system under bad weather is evaluated,and the rationality and practicability of the toughness evaluation model are proved.