Research On Fossil Energy Consumption Peak In Henan Province

Since the 21st century,the energy situation in the world is undergoing profound changes.How to deal with the global energy crisis and global warming has become a topic of increasing concern.Since the reform and opening up,with the rapid economic development in our country,the total amount of energy consumption in our country has been rapidly increasing.The problem of energy shortage and environmental pollution in our country is also aggravating day by day,which seriously hindered and affected the healthy development of our society and economy.As a big province with large population and economy in our country,Henan Province has made great strides in its economic development in recent years.With the implementation of the Rise of Central China and the establishment of the Central Plains Economic Zone,the development of Henan Province has reached a new height.As an important guarantee for people’s life and social development,energy plays a key role in the economic and social development of Henan Province.In Henan’s energy consumption structure,the traditional fossil energy accounts for the main part of the long-term consumption of large amounts of fossil energy,which has brought many problems to the development of Henan Province.The current economic development has entered a new normal.The three major features of economic speed change,structural optimization and power conversion have been clearly demonstrated.Facing these new conditions,accelerating the transformation of the mode of economic development and lowering the carbon development path has become the key to meeting the energy security crisis and the ecological environment The only way of pollution.Especially in recent years,Henan Province proposed to strengthen ecological civilization construction and build a beautiful Henan slogan.How to formulate relevant energy policies to deal with the current energy shortage,ecological environment pollution and greenhouse gas emissions has become an important research topic.Prediction of energy consumption is an important basis for the formulation of energy planning.At present,most cities in Henan Province are in the stage of rapid urbanization and industrialization.With the substantial increase in economic level and the intensification of energy consumption,it is reasonable To analyze and predict the energy consumption situation is of great significance for accurately judging and grasping the future energy security situation of Henan Province,ensuring energy supply security,controlling greenhouse gas emissions and social sustainable development.In this paper,a scenario analysis method is adopted and the Henan Province’s LEAP model is established to predict the total and peak fossil energy consumption in Henan Province from 2017 to 2050.Scenario analysis shows possible future development directions.It has great advantages compared with other analytical tools in the face of uncertain future environment.The scenario analysis in this paper includes three modules:scenario setting,scenario calculation,and scenario analysis.Before the scenario setting,this paper retrospectively analyzes the past history of economic and social development and the current situation of fossil energy consumption in Henan Province,and conducts corresponding research and analysis on the driving factors affecting fossil energy consumption in Henan Province.Then,a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis was used to carry out a series of purposeful assumptions and qualitative analysis on the influencing factors of fossil energy consumption in Henan Province and possible future evolutionary trends.They were quantified and three scenarios were set up.Including:basic growth scenarios,coordinated development scenarios,and enhanced emission reduction scenarios.Next,we constructed the LEAP model in Henan Province and analyzed data on the level of social and economic activities,energy consumption intensity,energy conversion technologies,and pollutant emission factors of the selected energy demand sector,and combined with other relevant basic parameters.LEAP calculation tools were used to input quantified indicators under different scenarios,and the total fossil energy consumption and C02 emissions and peak values under different scenario settings were calculated and predicted for Henan Province from 2017-2050.The research shows that under the basic growth scenario,the fossil energy consumption in Henan Province will increase year by year and there will be no peak.In contrast,under the coordinated development scenario and enhanced emission reduction scenario,the fossil energy consumption in Henan Province will be in 2030.The peaks reached were 309.2 million tons of standard coal and 266.9 million tons of standard coal.Therefore,it can be seen that different economic growth rates,population,industry,energy structure,urbanization,and production technology have a significant impact on the peak of fossil energy consumption.Finally,according to different scenarios,the results of fossil energy consumption peak forecasting,combined with scenario assumptions to achieve these objectives,draw regional,industry,technology,and other levels of policy measures,and thus for the relevant decision-making departments in Henan Province to develop medium and long-term energy The development strategy provides scientific and reasonable basis,and also provides important reference value for other similar economic regions and even the national energy development.