Predicting Method Of Electric Power Terminal Energy Consumption Based On LEAP Model And Its Application In Tianjin

Nowadays,with the populization of the new concept“Urban Energy Internet”,electrical power is becoming increasingly significant in the development of society.On the one hand,as the engine of economic development,power consumption links to market closely,therefore,the optimization of market structure can bring promotion to power consumption mechanism’s improvement.On the other hand,with the industrial restructuring and sustainable development driving deeply,a significant change will happen to power consumption,which is going to have deep impacts on the future economic development and industrial restructuring in Tianjin.Therefore,based on the existing prediction methods of terminal energy consumption and considering the hot topic carbon emission,a prediction technique of power terminal energy consumption based on LEAP model is proposed in this essay,and it is applied to the forecasting of electric power consumption and carbon emission in Tianjin.The major works are divided into four parts.(1)Firstly,domestic and external terminal energy consumption data is gathered to have a basic understanding of current situation of terminal energy consumption.By analyzing the recent variation tendency of the amount of terminal energy consumption,the consuming tendency and structural features of terminal energy consumption are well understood.According to the economic development and industrial structure of Tianjin,the current situation of terminal energy consumption in Tianjin is studied.(2)Based on the basic idea of LEAP(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System),set 2020,2030,and 2050 as the key time nodes,two scenarios are set according to“Tianjin‘13~thh Five-Year Plan’in energy development(exposure draft)”.One is base scenario and the other is low carbon scenario.Using“top-down”approach to identify the developing trend of economy and subdivide industry GDP,such as the energy and electrical power consuming intensity standards of industry,transportation,construction industry.And LEAP model is applied to simulate the terminal energy consumption in different situation of diverse departments.(3)Construction industry,transportation,industry are three typical industries in the secondary and tertiary industry.Primary energy consumption can be calculated by analyzing the demand and consumption trend of different types of energy.Then the carbon emission is estimated.Finally,the consuming tendency of terminal energy consumption in Tianjin can be predicted for different departments.(4)Calculating and analyzing the potential of electric power replacement in primary,secondary and tertiary industry,combined with the estimation of exploring potential of renewable energy,an important conclusion is summed up.It is that the electric power as a clean energy,the consumption trend of which is going to increase year by year in Tianjin terminal energy consumption.By using this energy consumption trend system,the future orientation of terminal energy consumption and carbon emission in 2020,2030 and 2050 of Tianjin is predicted.And the forecasting results can provide guidances to economic development,industrial structuring and environment protecting in Tianjin.