The Research Program Schedule Risk Based On The Rough Set Theory

With the development and economic growth in engineering technology,most projects are not isolated,but have a common goal and can share resources in a concerted manner,with centralized management presented in the form of project group.The project group is a complex systematic project with a complex structure,long construction period,and considerable construction difficulties.The entire construction process involve substantial risks and uncertainties.The project group schedule risk management is an important element of the large and medium-sized project management.In line with the views of the proprietors,this paper conducts a study on risks of progression of state-owned assets investments and holdings or project group directly managed by government departments.According to the indicator system of project group schedule risk evaluation,the risk of the project group schedule risk is assessed using the analytic hierarchy process,and risk ranking of the project group schedule risk factors is generated,and provides practical advice for project group managers.Details regarding specific content could be described as follows.Firstly,the background,significance and methods of program schedule risk are introduced,the development process of risk management is analyzed,and the theories and methods of the rate of progress of project group risk identification and evaluation are introduced in detail;Secondly,through an analysis of published literature and the attributes reduction method of rough set theory,establish the indicator system of project group schedule risk evaluation;Finally,the risk of the project group schedule risk is assessed using the analytic hierarchy process,and risk ranking of the project group schedule risk factors is generated.An analysis of published literature gives a picture of the individual project schedule risk assessment indicator system,and combining the attribute of the project group schedule risk,the assessment indicators which can transform attributes of project group schedule risk is figured out,and the initial selection assessment indicator system of project group schedule risk is established.Then the attributes reduction method of rough set is applied to remove the redundant risk assessment indicators and figure out the relative minimum risk reduction.The establishment of the indicator system of project group schedule risk evaluation makes the indicators more consistent with the actual project,and provides practical advice for project group managers.A conclusion can be drawn from a comparative analysis of individual project schedule risk assessment indicator system and project group schedule risk assessment indicator system that the main difference between the two schedule risk assessment indicator is the organizational risks.The organizational risk indicators in individual project schedule risk assessment indicator system include: organizational structure and staffing,cross-functional teams within project,proper exchange of information within project and project management experience.The organizational risk indicators in project group schedule risk assessment indicator system include: project group management philosophy of the proprietors,organizational structure and staffing,cross-functional teams within project,information sharing within project,project group resource allocation and project group management experience of the proprietors,the main differences between the individual project schedule risk and the project group schedule risk include the depth,complexity and range.The sequence of project group schedule risk assessment demonstrated by the numerical examples also agrees with the conclusion.