Development Prediction And Benefit Evaluation Of New Energy Consumption For Regional Power Grid Corp

In recent years,with the continuous consumption of fossil fuels and increasing environmental pollution and greenhouse effect,the world began to realize that the transformation of energy structure is imperative.In order to alleviate energy pressure and reduce pollution,the state proposes to develop renewable energy,and launches a series of preferential policies for new energy power industry.As an important part of power industry,the grid company should answer the call of these policies and complete its task of new energy consumption.Therefore,it is necessary for power grid companies to carry out the development forecast and benefit evaluation of new energy power consumption in the future.In this paper,regional power grid corp refers specifically to provincial power grid corp,and S Power Grid Corp was used as an example.Hydropower is the main power supply form in S province,while thermal power accounts for a relatively small proportion,therefore,the increase consumption of new energy power will substitute the original hydropower supply.Hydropower also has outstanding energy-saving and emission reduction benefit,and the purchase cost is relatively low,so the substitution of new energy power for hydropower will affect the economic benefit level of S Power Grid Corp.Firstly,the total electricity consumption has been forecasted based on time series method in this paper,and three patterns based on energy policies and energy structure have been assumed:rapid development pattern,benchmark development pattern and hydropower replacement pattern.As the failure of completing the new energy consumption target is very unlikely,so this paper did not consider the slow development pattern.On the basis of these three patterns,the development trend of new energy consumption for S province and S Power Grid Corp was executed.Secondly,on the basis of forecast result,"vertical and horizontal" scatter degree evaluation method has been built to respectively evaluate economic benefit,environmental benefit and social benefit of S Power Grid Corp under three modes,and the benefit influence of new energy consumptive can be analyzed according to the difference between patterns.Finally,based on the classified evaluation results,a comprehensive benefit evaluation model for new energy consumption in Power Grid Corp has been established to obtain the comprehensive benefit of new energy consumption of S Power Grid Corp through the empirical analysis.The development forecast result of new energy power consumption for S Power Grid Corp shows that new energy power will occupy a considerable proportion in the future electricity purchase structure of Power Grid Corp,and influence the share of hydropower as a result.Sorted benefit evaluation result shows that the new energy power consumption will have a negative impact on the economic benefit level of regional Power Grid Corp dominated by hydroelectric power,but can bring more prominent social benefit and environmental benefit.The comprehensive benefit evaluation result shows that the overall efficiency of rapid development pattern is higher,namely new energy power consumption is conducive to the development of Power Grid Corp.In order to ensure the individual economic benefit of Power Grid Corp,the state may take some policies to encourage all sectors of society to share new energy power consumption cost pressure,and further improve the efficiency level of new energy consumption of Power Grid Corp.