A MNL Model On Usage Intention And Mode Choice Of Primary And Secondary School Trips

The process of urbanization in our country has entered a stage of rapid development with the development of China's industrialization.As a result,a series of traffic problems have arisen,including the traffic problems in primary and secondary schools.China's student population has large-scale characteristics,on the basis of this,the reduction and concentration of compulsory education schools in new century and the mobility trend of students' commuting have caused traffic safety problems of primary and secondary school students and urban traffic congestion.As one of the ways to ease the problem of students' commuting to and from school,Western developed countries such as the U.S.and Britain have used studentonly school buses as the preferred means of transport for students,which has the advantages of low prices,flexible routes,and safety;at the same time,due to its ability to carry more passengers,there is a certain improvement in the traffic congestion in city.On the other hand,there is still room for improvement in the commuting methods of schoolchildren and school buses in China.This study hopes to combine travel mode selection models: the MNL model and the RP&SP survey to provide data support and some theoretical recommendations for optimizing the travel of primary and secondary schools and the development of students-only school buses.First,the research needs to investigate and analyze the characteristics of school transportation for primary and secondary school students,and observe the current status of needs for school buses when students go to school.Secondly,by establishing,demarcating,and testing the model,I comprehensively observed the impact of various relevant factors on students' choice of transportation modes,and observed the care factors that school buses can join;and finally,suggestions will be given to improve student commuting,improve domestic school buses,and guide students to transfer from other commuting methods to school bus commuting.After establishing this model and empirical analysis,we found the time inside the car,travel expenses,walking distance,probability of calibration,care,parents' age,parents' work status,family monthly income,parents' driving age,student gender,students ‘age,the degree of traffic congestion on road,the difficulty of parking around the school,the order of traffic around the school,the walking/biking environment of road,the escort status,and parents' commuting methods are the significant factors that affect students' choice of commuter travel methods.The probability of school bus selection is elastic for parents' commuting methods,the probability of personal car selection is elastic for family monthly income,and the probability of bus selection is elastic for time inside the car.Based on those information,improvements will be made in the areas of primary and secondary school trips,school bus trips,and transfer from other ways to school bus.