The Impact Assessment Of Low-carbon Policies On China's Biomass Molded Fuels Based On A CGE Model

Currently,China has become the largest carbon dioxide emitter in the world.And the Chinese government has already made low-carbon policies to control carbon emissions.In addition,developing the industry of biomass molded fuels to replace fossil fuels is another path to lower GHG emissions and combat climate change in China.And implementation of low-carbon policies will certainly have impacts on the development of biomass molded fuel.Quantifying and assessing the impacts of low-carbon policies on biomass molded fuel can provide information for implementation of low-carbon policies and development of biomass molded fuels,which will help to improve low-carbon policies and make more scientific plans on biomass molded fuels.Under such circumstance,focusing on industry of biomass molded fuels,this study builds a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model to make assessments of three different low-carbon policies-subsidies on biomass molded fuels,carbon tax and carbon emission trading system.And this thesis makes comparison of the policy impacts on the production and demand of biomass molded fuels,development of macroeconomy and carbon emissions.The results indicate that under the scenario of subsidies on biomass fuels,the total outputs of wood pellet fuels and agricultural briquette fuel rise by 17.06% and 21.27%,respectively.And the real GDP also slightly increases.And carbon tax increases the costs of fossil fuels,which indirectly improve the competiveness of biomass molded fuels(the total outputs of wood pellet fuels and agricultural briquette fuel rise by 0.87% and 0.70%)and lower carbon emissions.However,under the scenario of carbon tax,the activities of production are dampened(the real GDP decreases by 0.53%).In the scenario of emission trading system,the total consumption of energy and carbon emissions are reduced due to the increase in the total cost of energy inputs.However,implementation of carbon taxes and emission trading system will have negative effects on outputs of wood pellet fuels and agricultural briquette fuel(drop by 7.48% and 7.85%,respectively)and real GDP(decreases by 1.00%).According to different mechanisms and effects of three kinds of policies,combing domestic and foreign experience,suggestions are made to facilitate the sustainable development of both biomass fuel industry and macroeconomy of China.On one hand,the Chinese government should make rational combinations of low-carbon policies according to our country's development goal so that the policies could complement each other.The carbon tax could be combined with subsidies on biomass molded fuels to enhance the competitiveness of biomass molded fuels,promote the transformation of energy consumption structure and control the emissions of carbon dioxide while guaranteeing the development of economy.On the other hand,the allocation method of emission permits should be improved to raise the enthusiasm for reducing emissions of all sectors.