Analysis Of Risk Factors Of Assembly Construction Project Progress

With the rapid development of economy and urbanization,the construction industry has become the pillar industry of China's national economy.And people's increasing attention to environmental protection and energy conservation has brought about a huge demand for "green building".The construction industrialization,especially the "assembly" as the main feature,is regarded as the best means to realize the green building.As one of the three major goals of the construction project,the construction project progress goal has always been the focus of the industry.The construction project is seriously affected by the external factors,which leads to the serious delay in progress.Therefore,analyzing the schedule risk factors and reducing the losses caused of assembly construction project progress by them is the key problem to be solved at the present stage.Based on the above problems,this paper mainly to analysis assembly construction risk factors of building project progress with Social network and system dynamics method.The main contents are as follows:(1)social network analysis: first of all,we determine the progress risk brought by stakeholder groups directly involved in the assembly building project through interviews and surveys.And then establish the progress risk impact network and construct a corresponding social network model use the social network theory.Thirdly,according to the three characteristics of the social network,the four indicators of risk network analysis are determined,and the key progress risk is determined.(2)system dynamics analysis: firstly,the system dynamics method is used to analyze the three subsystems of the assembly building project,the production subsystem,the progress risk subsystem and the progress performance subsystem to construction of system stock flow chart.Then the key progress risk factors are added to construct the total system dynamics model,and the specific project parameters and the random variable distribution are set in the total model,and the Monte Carlo simulation of the key progress risk is carried out to quantify the specific impact time of the key progress risk on the project progress.Through the above research,this paper concludes that the risk factors which have great impact on the progress of the assembly construction project are "low efficiency of information transfer among stakeholders","project scope change","production process and process imperfection" and "different enterprise resource planning systems".Among them,the "low efficiency of information transfer among stakeholders" has the greatest impact and needs to be prevented and solved ahead of schedule.