Research On Gray Clustering Evaluation Of Prefabricated Building Construction Risk Based On PCA-COWA

Currently,with the decreasing benefits of China's demographic dividend,the problem of labor shortage & transformation and development of the construction industry have become very incongruous.With the result of it,fabricated buildings have emerged countrywide.Assembled building is an inevitable trend in the development,transformation and upgrading of the construction industry,and is a concrete manifestation of the new type of industrialization.Prefabricated buildings are basically prefabricated components that have been machined and assembled in the factory and transported to the construction site.Compared to traditional buildings,prefabricated buildings have the characteristics of fast construction,energy saving,material saving and environmental protection,and are in line with the “five-and-one environmental protection” policy requirements promoted by the state.However,because assembly-type buildings are still in the early stage of development in China,many related construction technology standards still need to be further improved.In addition,the construction technology of new-type lifting splicing combined with cast-in-place is more complex and demanding than the traditional simple cast-in-place technology.The connection accuracy is higher,so the risk factors for the construction process of prefabricated buildings are also more complicated.The construction process of prefabricated buildings is also the most critical step in the entire life cycle of the project.Timely,efficient,and accurate control of the key risk factors in the process of prefabricated construction is an important guarantee for the further realization of the project objectives,and it is also conducive to the rapid and healthy development of assembly methods.This article has carried out the throughout research of the risk assessment of the construction process of the assembled building project in combination with the engineering project goal management,the 5M1 E theory and the construction risk related to management theory.First,based on many domestic and foreign prefabricated architectural documents,this paper introduces the research background,purpose and significance,and analyzes the status quo of domestic and international prefabricated buildings and the status of application of risk management in the field of prefabricated buildings.It aims in discovering the problems in the research and then putting forward the direction of the main research of this paper;at the same time,it briefly expounds the main research contents and research ideas of the article,and the main research methods and innovations used.Second,it introduced the related theories of risk management,analyzed the common types of prefabricated buildings,the characteristics of prefabricated building construction industry and the construction process,and innovatively put forward the connotations of goal management and 5M1E-based assembly construction risk management.This laid the theoretical foundation for the subsequent chapters.Thirdly,the method and principle of risk identification of engineering projects and the principle of establishment of index systems are described.In consideration of the characteristics of prefabricated building construction,this paper selects the expert checklist method and combines the theory of construction process management elements(5M1E)to establish an assembly.List of initial risk factors for the construction of a building.According to the principle of establishing a risk index system,this paper innovatively uses the PCA method to screen and reduce the initial risk factors of prefabricated buildings,that is,remove redundant and duplicate indicators and successfully establish an objective,comprehensive and reasonable prefabricated building construction.Fourth,in order to further reduce the subjective factors and the impact of expert scoring on extreme values,this paper uses the combined number COWA operator to determine the weights of indicators at all levels;secondly,through the comparative analysis of risk assessment methods,the article adopts the grey system theory to establish the assembly type.The building risk assessment model further analyzes the applicability of the theory in the field of prefabricated construction.In the end,the risk assessment of prefabricated construction is established and a PCA-COWA-based prefabricated construction risk grey clustering evaluation model is established.Fifth,through the assembly project of the DX,the established risk evaluation indicator system and assessment model for the construction of the construction will be applied to the construction risk management of the project,focusing on the key risk factors in the analysis results.Specific risk management measures were put forward.The verification analysis results show that this method is well applicable to the risk management of prefabricated building construction and provides some ideas for risk assessment of other prefabricated construction projects.