Research On Influence Factors And Planning Strategies Of Shrinking Cities In Jilin Province

The alternate appearance of prosperity and recession is universal law of urban development.However,previous urban planning has always been focusing on growth.Western developed countries begin to realize that social trend has changed after more than 200 years' industrialization and urbanization,that is,growth has been replaced by shrinkage.In case of China,since 1978's reformation,with orientation of economic growth as the center of urban development,urban planning has been concentrating on coping with urban expansion,which belongs to "incremental planning".With global economy entering a new round of transformation since 2008,China's economic development has also launched "new normal era",which means a lower development velocity.With emergence of Lewis turning point and gradual disappearance of demographic dividend,China also appeared a lot of shrinking cities.The widespread distribution of this phenomena has led “Shrinking Cities" to be the forefront of urban research.For urban planning and implementation,development strategies of such cities are the focus of study.Based on analysis of performance characteristics on population,economy and space in shrinking cities of Jilin Province,this paper chooses influence factors from aspects on population,economy and public service of 26 shrinkage samples and then constructs index system of quantitative factors describing urban shrinkage in Jilin Province,subsequently concluding important factors that influence urban contraction.Finally,taking practice of overall planning of Taonan City as an example,this paper explores planning strategies,guiding principles and action patterns for cities to adapt to shrinkage process.The paper is divided into three parts:The first part is research overview and research framework.The first chapter describes research background,definition of related concepts,research contents,research methods and technical routes.The research results of domestic and foreign shrinking cities have been combed and evaluated.The second part is the main body of study,including chapter two,three and four.In the second chapter,the paper makes definition,screening and classification on shrinking cities in Jilin Province and finally identified 26 units from total of 48.Then it summarizes performance characteristics of shrinking cities in Jilin Province from aspects of population,economy and space.In the third chapter,based on qualitative analysis of impact factor,the paper uses factor analysis and correlation analysis methods to make quantitative evaluation from aspects on population,economy and public service.It is concluded that low service level,low birth rate and sllugish economic growth are the main factors affecting Jilin's city shrinkage in turn,followed by a comprehensive summary of influence mechanism.In the fourth chapter,planning strategies are put forward in view of shrinking cities from four levels,that is,economic,space,public facilities,and regime.Eventually,taking practice of overall planning of Taonan City as an example,the paper manages to explore targeted action mode for dealing with city shrinkage.The third part is conclusion of this paper,including summarized results,research shortage and expectation for future study.