Research On Type Optimal Decision Of Inland Waterway Service Area And Maritime Safety Supervision

With the inland waterborne transportation thriving in China,the increasing demand of services for inland ships follows,such as material replenishment,berth,maintenance,etc.Currently,the infrastructure for ship service lacks,and the supporting service lags as well.Thus,it is necessary to build the multi-functional inland waterway service area.The inland waterway service area refers to the centralized infrastructure set along the waterway,functioning as fuel supply,ship maintenance,material replenishment,etc.It will consequently facilitate the development of efficient shipping and green shipping.Based on the current construction and operation of the inland ship service and the corresponding practical demand,the decision-making processes to select appropriate inland waterway service areas are investigated in this paper.It also has practical significance in solving the issues of planning,building and supervising the inland waterway service area by proposing suggestions for marine safety supervision.On the basis of literature review and relevant statistical analysis of inland waterway service infrastructure,this paper investigates the type selection of inland waterway service area from the perspective of its risk analysis.The core methodology of Formal Safety Assessment is adopted for the integral theoretical analysis,while the empirical case study is also conducted.Firstly,the risk factors of inland waterway service area are analyzed based on the system theory of Man-Machine-EnvironmentManagement.The first layer of evaluation index system is determined as environment,ship and personnel/management.With the same methodology,the second and third layers of evaluation indices are determined as well.Based on the causality between risk factors,the Bayesian network topological structure of inland waterway service area is developed,with the range of each node defined as well.Afterwards the conditional probability table for all nodes in the Bayesian network is obtained by the combination of the conditional probability model and triangular fuzzy numbers.On this basis,GeNIe is used to compute probabilistic reasoning and develop the further Bayesian network structure.As a result,the decision-making for risk control is reasonably inferred,which is the selection set of appropriate types of inland waterway service area.Meanwhile,the type with most benefits to meet the demand of fuel,fresh water and other material is analyzed.Compared to the type set for risk control,the optimal decision can be made.Besides,considering the characteristics of inland waterway service area,the suggestions for marine safety supervision are proposed from four aspects,being personnel configuration,safety techniques,anti-pollution,emergency response.Finally,a case study is conducted in Yixing inland waterway service area for validation.The research results shows that it is scientific and reasonable to decide the optimal type of inland waterway service area by using Formal Safety Assessment method and Bayesian network.It provides a theoretical basis for the type selection of inland waterway service area in the initial period of planning and construction.The supervision suggestions proposed in this paper can provide a technical support for maritime management.