Collision Risk Assessment Of Closed Spaced Parallel Runways

Air traffic is expected to increase significantly over the next ten to fifteen years, air traffic is expected to increase more than 70 percent by the year 2025. This type of growth required to improve the arrival and departure capacity at major airports. Thus, in recent years, domestic and foreign research institutions and scholars have studied paired approach and paired departure in closely spaced parallel runways as well as the necessity and feasibility. Either paired approach or paired departure,the collision risk is essentially important.Firstly, the system of closely spaced parallel runway collision risk has been studied by considerating man, machine, environment and management, based on the risk factors establishing a fault tree collision risk. And it gives recommendations on closely spaced parallel runways operation through the results. Secondly, considering the key factors and safety separation, the collision risk model has been established by using principal component analysis method and position error combined with the probability theory.Finally, Analysing the process of paired departure and the speed changing of two aircrafts,and establishing the longitudinal collision risk model of paired departure. The collision risk models provide the theoretical basis for the implementing of paired approach an paired departure.