Identification And Control Of Passenger's Risk When Adjust Public Transit Network At Initial Stage Of Implementation

Bus is an important infrastructure for closely relating to citizens' daily life,and the development of bus is not only the effective measures to alleviate urban traffic congestion,but also improve urban environment,promote the sustainable development of city.On the one hand,there is unreasonable on the programme of public transit network and infrastructure.On the other hand,with the construction and use of the subway,it is imperative to adjust the public transit network for connection to the subway.It involves a lot of passengers to adjust public transit network and causes inconvenience to passengers,that causes negative emotions of passengers,contains risk and causes by emergency.This paper identifies passengers' indicators of risk and gets risk degree and by establishing difference-risk matrix model to guide the design plan.Further to identify the high risk groups and puts forward control measures to effectively prevent and avoid group incidents,and provide decision basis and safeguard measures to safeguard the plan of public transit network adjustment to smooth implementation.Based on passenger perception,this paper puts forward difference-risk matrix method to identify passengers' risk and taking Wuhan as an example making a concrete analysis.With the principle of participation of the public and experts and people oriented,by means of passenger satisfaction survey and passenger expectation survey for public transit network adjustment,combined with difference between status quo satisfaction level,desire for line network adjustment and scheme optimization degree,establish a three-dimensional matrix model to classify risk area for sorting the risk indicators.Through analysis by high risk indicators and passengers individual attribute correlation significance,identify the high risk groups.According to the results of model,the order from high to low of indicators of risk degree is transfer times,travel expenses,total travel time,waiting time and walking distance to bus station.Complex Adaptive Systems Theory and Prospect Theory model is applied to adjusting public transit network,through summarizing the enlightenment of safeguard measures to public transit network adjustment,making strategy to control risk respectively from travel expenses,total travel time,waiting time and walking distance to bus station.Putting forward control strategies for the transfer time: implementation with consequent transfer and scattered transfer,designing different styles of transfer junctions,constructing transfer junctions and supporting facilities,constructing surrounding integrated services platform and other things good for people.