Research On The Risk Management Of W Company's Photovoltaic Power Generation Project Based On Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Photovoltaic power generation projects generally have large investment amount,long investment cycle,high technical requirements,and are affected by complex factors such as policy,environment,late operation and maintenance.Often,investors of photovoltaic power generation projects do not have sufficient theoretical knowledge of project risk management,strong risk awareness,and lack of risk research on the whole life cycle of photovoltaic power generation projects.In this paper,the distributed photovoltaic power generation project in dongguan(W project for short)invested by W company is selected to study all kinds of risks in different stages of the whole life cycle of the project,so as to carry out risk management,avoid losses caused by risks and ensure investment returns,which is of great significance.Aiming at the risk management of the whole life cycle of W project,this paper adopts the risk management means of risk identification,risk analysis and evaluation and risk control.First,the risks of photovoltaic power station investment projects in different life cycle stages are comprehensively identified,analyzed and evaluated by collecting relevant materials of photovoltaic power station investment projects,using expert investigation method,field investigation,consultation,literature review and other methods,and the list of risk factors is obtained.Then,the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model was used to calculate the risk weight of each risk factor in the risk list,and the degree of influence of each risk factor on the project was quantified.Then,the risk level of the whole life cycle of photovoltaic power generation investment project was obtained by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Finally,combined with the calculation results of the fuzzy hierarchical analysis model,the main risks of the project are identified,and corresponding risk countermeasures are developed to reduce risks and promote the project to achieve the expected goals as far as possible.Through the research in this paper,it is concluded that the biggest risk factors influencing the photovoltaic power generation project invested by W company are policy risk,operation and maintenance risk,natural environment risk and so on.The comprehensive project risk assessment results indicate that the comprehensive risk of the project is of a low level.In addition,specific countermeasures against the main risks were formulated.In terms of policy risk response,appropriate operation modes were selected in combination with policy changes to maximize the benefits.In the aspect of operation and maintenance risk,make detailed operation and maintenance work plan,patrol management and so on to prevent;In terms of natural environment risk prevention,the measures of light resource assessment and severe weather prevention are formulated.The research in this paper provides a strong guidance for W company to make investment decisions and control risks of this project.