Economic Feasibility Study On The Second Phase Of Chengdu Metro Line X

In recent years,the land in the central area of Chengdu has been fully exploited and utilized,and the traffic load on the ground is too heavy.In order to realize the sustainable development of Chengdu and give full play to the overall function of rail transit network,Chengdu Metro Line X of the second phase came into being.First,considering the development scale of Chengdu,the relationship between traffic supply and demand,and the future development plan,four stage traffic planning models are constructed to predict the passenger flows of Chengdu Metro Line X,including its daily passenger volume and that volume of early and late peak respectively in Year 2019,Year 2026 and Year 2041.And the construction plant is put forward from the scale and construction standard of this project.Next,from the three aspects of engineering expenses,other expenses of engineering construction and other expenses,the total investment of the project is analyzed in detail,followed by the financing scheme.Based on the forecast passenger flows and the investment estimation of the project,this paper focuses on the analysis of the financial evaluation from the perspective of financial profitability,solvency and sustainability.Also,the economic cost-benefit analysis is presented after analyzing the selection of the shadow price and social discount rate.Then,the sensitivity analysis and the profit-loss balance analysis are conducted.Finally,based on the matrix of risk grading evaluation,this paper illustrates the main risks of this projects.The results show that the overall project risk,construction risk,risk of electromechanical installation,risk of construction environment and engineering operation risk are in an acceptable range.In summary,in the 20 years since the operation of Chengdu Metro Line X,the pressure of repayment is greater.However,the national economic benefit is good and this project has a certain ability to resist risks.Thus,this project is feasible.