| Restricted by historical,economic,and geographic conditions,the development of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region's railways lags far behind other provinces and regions in the northwest,especially compared to the developed regions in the east.As an important node province in the construction of the “Belt and Road”,the Xinjiang Autonomous Region has also ushered in a new round of construction opportunities.In particular,the construction of the Pan-Asian Railway Corridor needs to be connected to Central Asia and Europe through Xinjiang,and the construction of the trunk road network also gives The overall development of the autonomous region 's railways provides new requirements.At present,the railway construction in Xinjiang Autonomous Region has problems such as insufficient road network density,unbalanced regional development,and incomplete overall road network planning.To this end,taking prefectures(cities)as the research unit,starting from the coupling relationship between the road network and the regional economy,studying the relationship between the population,economy and other factors of the region and the expansion of the railway network,rationally planning the layout and regional construction of the regional railway network Planning has a very important role in enhancing the adaptability of the scale of the road network to regional economic development and promoting the continuous development of the economy.To this end,the paper mainly studies the following issues:(1)Dynamic analysis of the coupling relationship between railway road network and regional economyConstruct a coupling model of railway road network and regional economic development.After analysis,the coupling coordination model can be used to evaluate the overall coordination level better than the coupling model.The entropy method can be used to determine the weights for the selected evaluation indicators to effectively avoid subjectivity.The impact of differences.Through the construction of the coupling coordination degree model,the dynamic analysis of the coupling relationship,the analysis of the cause of the "scissors difference",and the spatial differentiation analysis are carried out to study the degree of coupling coordination and development law between the two systems of the railway network and the regional economy.It can be found that,except for Urumqi,Karamay and Shihezi,other prefectures(cities)in Xinjiang Autonomous Region are in a state of serious imbalance and extreme imbalance.The construction of the railway road network lags behind the regional economic development.It is necessary to study the law of interaction and conduct a scientific road network.(2)Analysis of the expansion law of railway road network based on entropy weight gray correlation methodSelect 21 index evaluation systems in three dimensions of railway road network development status,economic development status and social development status,and establish a comparison sequence with 15 evaluation indexes in two dimensions of economic development status and social development status as driving factors,and use railway network development The 6 indicators of status are used as target elements to establish a reference sequence.By analyzing the independence and correlation between the indicators,the entropy weight gray correlation method is used to evaluate and rank the contribution of each driving element to the target element,and the railway network density is used to represent the expansion of the railway network.The driving factor can be summarized as GDP,Income level,social security and population,according to the Cobb-Douglas function,a railway network density production function model is established to predict the railway network density of 15 prefectures(cities)in Xinjiang.The research results show that: from the perspective of the predicted railway network density in various regions,the northern Xinjiang region is significantly higher than the southern Xinjiang region.Therefore,in order to promote the continuity of the railway channel in the north and south Xinjiang,the density of the railway network needs to be balanced.(3)Analysis of the development planning of the railway network in Xinjiang Autonomous RegionBased on the comprehensive analysis of the interaction between road network construction and economic development,the BN-BP artificial neural network model is used to predict and analyze passenger and freight volumes.The connectivity scale and the analog model method are used to measure the scale of road network demand in Xinjiang Autonomous Region in 2030(the next 10 years).An important node degree method based on traffic location is used for railway road network planning and analysis,and a model for determining the main skeleton and primary line network is constructed.In the end,the railway road network planning plan of Xinjiang Autonomous Region is a network road network form of "horizontal and horizontal two axes + big Tianshan ring line + peripheral radiation + multiple connection lines",which has a good agreement with the existing road network planning of the autonomous region.(4)Adaptability analysis of railway network and regional economy with prefecture(city)as the research unitTaking the 15 prefectures(cities)in the autonomous region as the research unit,and using the existing regional railway network scale and economic development index as the benchmark,the internal relationship between the state(city)road network and economic development is studied.Principal component analysis,data envelopment analysis and other methods are used to establish a regional railway road network evaluation index system and regional economic development level evaluation index system,select a decision-making unit suitable for the target area,and establish a regional railway network scale and economy The development adaptability CCR evaluation model analyzes the adaptability of the Xinjiang regional railway network and economic development at this stage,and provides a decision basis for regional railway network planning. |
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