Research On Risk Assessment Of Social Stability Caused By Large Hydro-juncture Project

In the construction and operation of major engineering projects,the risk of social stability exists with the positive benefits of society.With the gradual increase of the number of major water conservancy hub projects in China,the social stability problem caused by the society has been paid more and more attention,the National Development and Reform Commission has taken the analysis and evaluation of social stability risk as the premise of project approval.In order to make reasonable assessment and scientific control of the social stability risk of major water conservancy hub projects,this paper cuts into the government management,conducts prior assessment according to the government regulations,aims to analyze the potential hidden factors,construct the evaluation index system,select the appropriate evaluation method for risk assessment and formulate risk control measures,improve the application of risk management theory in major water conservancy projects,so as to achieve social development and win-win situation with the public.The main research content is as follows:(1)Research on the evaluation index system.According to the Interim Measures for Social Stability Risk Assessment of Major Water Construction Projects(Water Regulation No.474),design the index system from four aspects(legitimacy,rationality,feasibility,controllability),and obtain the index system framework according to the key design and evaluation elements in each aspect,so that the indicator system is systematized and comprehensive,summarize the existing research results and adverse events that have occurred in similar projects,etc.,and form the indicator system information of the primary election system.Through the questionnaire reliability test and expert interview screening and determine the index system.(2)Evaluation method preferred research.Because of the particularity of theresearch object,the social stability risk factor is difficult to quantify,in addition to the problem of the small number of experts,there are still problems that the index contains more information leads to the uncertainty of the evaluation results.Through the screening evaluation method,the model of the comprehensive evaluation method of the main component and the undetermined measurement theory are selected,which makes the evaluation results more reasonable and accurate,and provides new ideas for the evaluation.(3)Case analysis.The case study of the social stability risk of a project in Shaanxi shows that after the implementation of the risk resolution measures,the risk level of the project is converted to low and controllable,and it is feasible and effective to apply to the project practice.(4)Research on risk control measures.It is proposed to divide the indicators into 4categories,according to the most sensitive,sensitive,generally sensitive and insensitive order of risk resolution management strategy,so that the order of risk control arrangements is realistic,reduce the risk of mitigation measures to implement the blindness.