| High-speed railways have developed rapidly in China with their own technological advantages such as high speed,large transportation volume,and high comfort.At the same time,debt risks and financial sustainability caused by large investment and high operating costs have also been affected by relevant experts.Criticism of scholars.In this case,predicting its impact on the development of the regional economy,especially the development of the tourism economy,has become one of the key factors in determining whether the high-speed rail project is approved.At the end of 2018,the first high-speed railway in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Tongliao to Xinmin North,was opened and operated.Chifeng-Beijing and Shenyang will also be opened in2020.As the tourism resources in Inner Mongolia are very rich,tourism is an important part of its economic development.It is necessary to study the tourism economy of the two regions.In view of this,this article attempts to study and forecast the regional tourism economic impact after the opening of the high-speed rail in Tongliao and Chifeng areas of Inner Mongolia,and finds and summarizes corresponding methods to provide new ideas and relevant theories for improving the evaluation of existing high-speed rail construction projects in China in accordance with.This article first analyzes the impact mechanism and action mechanism of high-speed rail on regional tourism economy from three aspects: accessibility,tourism flow,and tourism industry structure.Then,using the synthetic control method,the 16 cities that opened the high-speed rail in 2013 were selected as the control group.By constructing a composite area of Tongliao and Chifeng,the development of the tourism economy of the two high-speed rail openings was simulated.The comparison of the development of the tourism economy between the "high-speed rail is not open",and the impact of the high-speed rail opening on the tourism economy of Tongliao and Chifeng is predicted.Given that the tourism economy of Tongliao and Chifeng mainly comes from domestic sources,this article uses the domestic tourist population and tourism income indicators to reflect the development of the tourism economy of the two places.Through research,it is found that for Tongliao,the opening of high-speed rail may not have a very significant effect on the number of domestic tourists and domestictourism income in Tongliao,and may even have a weak negative effect.For Chifeng,which is richer in tourism resources,the opening of the high-speed rail may promote the increase in the number of domestic tourists in Chifeng.By calculation,the increase effect is 5.34%,but it will not promote the growth of domestic tourism income,and may even have a negative effect,and Compared with Tongliao,the negative effect of Chifeng is more obvious.It is found through research that the opening of high-speed rail will have a positive impact on the tourism economy of Tongliao and Chifeng.And compared with Tongliao,the positive effect of high-speed rail opening on Chifeng,which is richer in tourism resources,will be more obvious.The average opening effect of domestic tourist arrivals in Tongliao brought by the opening of the high-speed rail(2019-2023)is 3.02%,and the average domestic tourist income growth effect(2019-2023)is 4.26%;for Chifeng,the average domestic tourist arrivals growth effect(2020-2024)is 5.34%,and the average domestic tourist income growth effect(2020-2024)is 12.42%.High-speed railways have improved the convenience of transportation and brought opportunities to the tourism economic development of Tongliao and Chifeng.In order to better promote the development of high-speed rail to the tourism economy of the two places,this article focuses on five aspects to make relevant recommendations: increasing tourism promotion and promotion,strengthening tourism infrastructure construction,developing distinctive tourism products,strengthening cooperation between various transportation modes,and deepening regional tourism cooperation. |
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