Study On The Social Risks Of Large-scale Water Conservancy Projects Based On Integrated ISM/DEMATEL Model

Large-scale water conservancy projects are an important part of China's infrastructure construction and have a pivotal impact on the stability of regional society.These projects involve many social risk factors.How to effectively identify,analyze and evaluate these factors has become an important topic of risk research.The ISM model(Interpretative Structural Modeling Method)and the DEMATEL method(Decision-making Experimental Analysis Method)are effective in analyzing the relationship of data indicators.This thesis aims to establish an integrated ISM/DEMATEL model for social risk factor research considering the advantages of these two methods.Through literature analysis and expert interviews,according to five specific classifications,16 social risk factors of major water conservancy projects were identified and established.On the basis of which,the questionnaire was designed and distributed to experts from the water conservancy engineering industry.The data of 82 valid questionnaires were analyzed and processed.The system hierarchy of risk factors was established by using the integrated ISM/DEMATEL model.Furthermore,types of risk factors are analyzed.Finally,the corresponding suggestions for social risk prevention and control are given.The study found that 16 social risk factors are distributed at six levels of the system structure,of which two risk factors are independent factors,four risk factors are dependent factors,and the other 10 risk factors are self-style factors;In the system hierarchy,from the bottom to the top,the risk factors show a chronological order and a transition from indirect impact to direct impact of affecting the local people.;all levels of risk factors through the mutual influence relationship,have an impact with different paths on the social system.The conclusions of the study reveal the systematic hierarchical structure of social risk factors of largescale water conservancy projects in the process of interaction,which is conducive for management personnel to more clearly understand the internal relationship between social risk factors,and implement classified controls to the social risk factors to enhance the effectiveness of risk management.