| Railway is the main artery of national society and economy,and high-speed railway is the main force.The opening of high-speed rail speeds up the flow of people,information and capital along the line,and injects vitality into the economic development of all parts of the country.However,the opening of high-speed rail is a double-edged sword,which has both spillover effect and siphon effect.Therefore,it is necessary to accurately evaluate and measure the direction and degree of high-speed rail driving local economy.According to the previous research at home and abroad,the pulling effect of high-speed rail on the economy along the line is mainly concentrated in the tertiary industry.At the same time,China's economic development has entered a new normal stage,and the overall economic development has changed from high-speed growth to medium high-speed growth mode.Under this economic mode,the opening of high-speed railway does not necessarily become the main factor of local economic development,but is influenced by the common role of the new normal and high-speed railway.In the empirical analysis of high-speed railway driving local economy,the new normal needs to be eliminated Factors.In addition,under the new normal of economy,China's future economy will pay more attention to the development of service industry,and the proportion of the tertiary industry will continue to increase and will be the focus of future economic development.Based on the above factors,this paper will focus on the impact of high-speed rail on the development of the tertiary industry along the line under the new normal,and choose the Jiangxi Section of Shanghai Kunming high-speed rail as the empirical analysis object.From the overall impact effect and specific driving effect,this paper studies the impact of the opening of Shanghai Kunming high-speed rail on the development of the tertiary industry in Jiangxi Province and six cities along the Jiangxi section during 2015-2018.After analyzing the mechanism of high-speed railway's effect on regional tertiary industry economic development,this paper studies the theme of this paper from three aspects: high-speed railway's promotion of regional tertiary industry's overall output,expansion of investment scale and indirect impact on related industries.Choose the added value of the tertiary industry and the fixed asset investment of the tertiary industry as the indicators to study the overall output and investment scale;in the indirect impact industries,choose the consumer retail industry,tourism industry and real estate industry as the research objects,respectively,select the total retail sales of social consumer goods,domestic tourism income and commercial housing sales as the research indicators.At the same time,in order to eliminate the price impact,the corresponding indexes are selected to deflate the original data.In terms of research methods,this paper first selects panel regression model to explore the overall impact of the growth of railway passenger flow and the development of the tertiary industry of cities along the line,taking into account the new normal factors and price factors.At the same time,virtual variables are introduced to explore whether high-speed rail traffic will have a significant effect.After getting the results of the overall impact effect,the specific driving effect of Shanghai Kunming high-speed railway is analyzed.In the study of specific driving effect,the Grey Prediction GM(1,1)model is used to study whether there is a comparison method.Firstly,using the grey prediction model,we explore and measure the new normal level of a certain index in China from 2015 to 2018.At the same time,we assume that the same index of Jiangxi Province is affected by the same index as the whole country.After measuring the influencing factors of the new normal of economy,the grey prediction model is used again to measure the common factors of the new normal of economy and Shanghai Kunming high-speed railway.It is assumed that the new normal of economy and the opening of high-speed rail are independent in economic principle,and the factors of the two are multiplied to get a common action model.Therefore,after removing the influence of new normal economic factors by using common influencing factors,the driving effect of Shanghai Kunming high-speed railway on Jiangxi Province and cities along the line is obtained.The data of panel regression shows that the development of the tertiary industry in Jiangxi is positively related to the growth of railway passenger volume without excluding price factors and new normal economic factors,and the opening of Shanghai Kunming high-speed railway has a significant effect on the development of the tertiary industry in cities along the line of Jiangxi,which has a certain positive effect on the whole,but the specific driving effect and direction are required After eliminating the price factor and the new normal factor,the gray prediction model should be used for further consideration.The result of grey prediction shows that the opening of Shanghai Kunming high-speed railway has expanded the investment scale of tertiary industry in Jiangxi Province,and stimulated the development of real estate industry and tourism industry after excluding the influence factor of new normal of economy.However,the opening of Shanghai Kunming high-speed railway has a weak negative effect on the overall output of the tertiary industry.At the same time,the idea that the new normal should be considered in the empirical study is also demonstrated in the empirical study.For example,the proportion of fixed assets investment in the tertiary industry in Jiangxi continues to rise after the opening of Shanghai Kunming high-speed railway,but it can be concluded that the high-speed railway has a negative effect on this field by using the grey prediction model.Using the measured new normal factors of fixed investment to eliminate this influence,we can draw more accurate conclusions. |
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